Or maybe they will launch Win 12 with optional TPM support.
Imho making the OS(es) TPM only cannot be good for their business, many people are still on Win 10 with no intention to switch, since their motheboard does not support TPM and do not want to upgrade PC / waste PCI-E slot on TPM extension.
Yeah, and then there are many enterprises that still use XP (edge case, but it may be well hundreds of thousands worldwide still) or Win 7 (possible millions of companies). It is not all smooth sailing in enterprise level either, many companies are upgrade averse, and if the stuff works, then why upgrade it.
Because of missing support and updates. These machines are not their concern though - they are running obsolete software and/or hardware that’s incompatible with an upgrade. No matter the requirements for tpm on win 11.