- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
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So if Iran goes full monty and China invades Taiwan while Russia is grinding down its population on the Ukrainian front, we’d have WW3 on our hands I reckon.
That war is already underway, we just won’t be calling it that until after…
Not really a world war until 10 countries are actively involved with 2 of them USA and China.
Right now usa is passive and china is not involved.
We’re in the lend and lease phase right now
I could see it being called a proxy world war. There’s enough concentration of where support is coming from.
I think that’s just called a Cold War. We didn’t invade Vietnam because we actually give a shit about Vietnamese people, it was a proxy war with the USSR
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And all of that because the US can’t tell Israel to stop bombing civilians in Gaza.
Not because that wtf
Oh yes, exactly because of that! It may seem farfetched to come to that conclusion, but only if you look at things as isolated happenings instead of in a more global geopolitical scope.
Turkey, Iran and Egypt are eager to enter the stage. Their only repellent is the US’ firm stance with Israel. But how long can this Mexican standoff be in place?
Israel has already cut Gaza in half and now they are going to increase the killings in the northern half in which still 1.1 million citizens live. The number of casualties will increase dramatically and the videos and images will ignite the region. One of the eager neighbors mentioned above might enter the stage, they might even jointly enter all at the same time.
What happens if Turkey, a NATO member, enters Israel? What are the implications of this?
China is smelling US weakness and can’t wait for something like that to happen. They will immediately proceed with their plan of annexing Taiwan.
If that happens, Russia will mobilize with full force and there you have it - WW3.
All because America couldn’t say to Israel to lift it’s finger from the trigger.
China cannot simply invade Taiwan in a moment whenever opportunity strikes, it would need significant and obvious preparation and buildup, because they would be contemplating a naval invasion on an almost unprecedented scale.
Russia probably will mobilize however far it’s government feels it safely can regardless of China; NATO isn’t going to directly invade Russia itself because of it’s nuclear arsenal, and isn’t terribly likely to actually send a serious number of troops to Ukraine for the same reason, so what it primarily has to worry about is western sanctions and military equipment, and of course the efforts of the Ukrainians themselves, which it already has to deal with regardless of what China is doing.
Israel for it’s part is also a nuclear armed state, so actual full scale war being declared upon it by it’s neighbors is unlikely. Support for terrorist or resistance groups, sure, maybe some sanctions, and definitely a lot strongly worded condemnation, but I’d very much doubt that the leadership of those countries cares enough about the Palestinians to declare a possibility suicidal war over it, the kind of politicians that lead these countries aren’t exactly famous for their empathy.
China has the world’s largest Navy currently. That buildup has been happening for at least a decade.
I don’t mean number of ships, I mean getting the ships and troops into position to use them.
The two small islands close to mainland China will be the proving grounds, I’d expect. Unless he decides to retake the Vladivostok Oblast.
But if they’re at war, that ties up a lot of their resources. They’re currently using their military strength to claim international waters in the South China Sea. If they get into a war with Taiwan, they can’t back that claim up. The countries which are being unfairly denied those waters can assert themselves without fear of significant reprisal, and the US would be more than happy to aid that.
There’s really no sensible reason for China to go after Taiwan, it’s complete bait. They stand to lose far more than they stand to gain.
more boats /= capable navy. most of their “navy” is small patrol boats
I’m aware of their current capabilities. The troop transports and carriers are the things that raise my eyebrow.
Israel can only ever hope to use its nuclear arsenal as a deterrant to its neighboring countries. As soon as they use a single nuclear warhead in the region, it will instantaneously lose all the support it still had in the world and beyond that point it is hard to predict what the world will turn into, but it would be ugly.
That’s the nature of nukes for any country. But as a deterrent they have proven highly effective
This is a very large logic train and you can’t demonstrate A->B let alone A->Z. Basically confirmation bias.
I can’t demonstrate geostrategic happenings? Of course I can’t. Can you?
I don’t make claims I can’t demonstrate and demand people take me on faith for my tinfoil nonsense
I don’t think turkey will enter Israel at all. Maybe Egypt if US insisted on moving Gazaians to Sinai.
Also why Russia will mobilize? They have no incentive to face NATO now. Maybe weakening the west in the long run.
Russia is facing NATO right now, just not directly, but by proxy. In case of a major disruption within NATO, they could try to use the opportunity to increase their defending position by taking the 3 small baltic countries.
Russia tried to hurt NATO by punching the guy next to him, and in return is getting beaten to a pulp by the guy that got hit while NATO laughs and supplies knuckledusters to their wrongly attacked neighbour. Russia is a clown state that’s done nothing but embarrass themselves for 18 months straight
Russia made a mistake by invading Ukraine, but they are far from “being beaten to a pulp”.
I see.
I thought you mean nuking NATO.
Egypt is not going to enter, they hate hamas and their own Muslim brotherhood.
They’ll to defend their land.
This is their prime minister statement.
Amid rising pressure on Egypt to admit Palestinian refugees, the country’s prime minister, Mostafa Madbouly, said it remained committed to protecting its land and sovereignty regardless of the cost. “We are prepared to sacrifice millions of lives to ensure that no one encroaches upon our territory,” Madbouly told a gathering in Sinai of military leaders, local tribal leaders, members of parliament and other politicians.
Lol okay loser.
Way too broad a brush, mate.
broken fucking record
Don’t forget the middle east
Was that not covered by “if Iran goes full monty?”
I am sorry, I obviously can’t read properly
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Yes, like Yemen or Palestine or Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan? They have interests and influence outside their own country, to varying degrees.
Where in the world is Iran located?
I am sorry, I can’t read
Great what a time to be alive! /s
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Well not so quiet anymore
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Oh but I DO hide in the building after I “quietly” leave. Then I just like sit at the breakfast table in my “borrowed” jammies and ask what’s for breakfast as my gracious host rounds the corner in the morning
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If anything, it’s the exact opposite of covert. Taiwan has been unwisely hollowing out their military for the past two decades. These recent expenditures—not matched by corresponding manpower increases—are meant to broadcast that everything’s fine, pay no attention to the problems underneath.
China has also reduced its military manpower. Both are going for quality over quantity.
Looking at Russia bungling their little adventure in Ukraine, maybe quantity alone doesn’t seem like the best approach.
Is there any active or potential war the US isn’t paying for?
The bulk of the US economy is based on taking money from working people and then consolidating it to billionaires that run defense corporations. So “paying for” it’s basically just an engine for making rich Americans more rich.
Are there any it hasn’t?
kind of /s
If China invades Taiwan our entire economy will come to a screeching halt. Hence why America is interested.
If China wanted to invade, idk, Thailand, we’d just kind of shrug and say “Hey, don’t do that.”
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Removed, rule 4, racially loaded language.
Yes. Syria,
Yemen, Libya.Yemen: US funded, Saudi Led Anti-Houthi Rebels in Yemen.
The Saudis fighting with Hezbollah.Wait I think we did sell weapons to the Saudis lol. The conflicts in and around Turkey. Congress has [blocked arms deals to Turkey](blocked arms deals to Turkey), but Biden has tried to make it happen. We are arming Ukraine, but not arming other countries in the former Soviet bloc that would probably enjoy more independence from Russia right now. We’re not arming Africa which aims to stop piracy, stop foreign boats from dragnetting their shores, and has some internal conflicts with governments and insurgents. We aren’t arming Mexico to stop the drug cartels. (Although US citizens frequently arm the cartels).And don’t worry, Europe has arms to replace now thanks to the Ukraine-Russia war. US Plans to Backfill the Donated Arms.
Yeah you can pretty much look up “US sends weapons to X” and get a positive result that we have indeed. We are also actively stopping Syria, Iran, Turkey, and Russia from arming more rebels whenever we can. US siezes Iranian Ammo, Sends to Ukraine.
Well, all those General Dynamics and Raytheon shareholders deserve maximum return on their investments, according to St. Friedman.
Well Taiwan can either go with the US or China. They’ve been wanting to stay independent from China for a while now so I don’t think it’s much of a surprise.
Almost all countries other than USA, Russia, and China have to pick a side.
I mean Russia is pretty close to needing to pick a side.
Well, their economy isn’t collapsing any time soon. And they managed to destroy modern military systems supplied by NATO.
Hasn’t their economy already shrunk by 5% since the war began?
Seems like they’re going to become a vassal state of China.
I’ve been saying for the last couple of months that Xi is in a perfect position to reclaim the Vladivostok oblast. The native population is over 40% Han, not just Chinese, the type of Chinese the CCP gives a shit about. He could easily appear strong internally, and reclaim former Chinese territory that the Russians invaded in 1901, under the excuse of “a special military operation to defend the ethnic Chinese people in the region.” I seriously doubt that any other country other than Russia would even bat an eye, and Russia would be impotent to defend itself.
This would also give China a port that is outside of the first chain of islands that the US has set up
China been dreaming of this for decades.
That’s what I thought too, but Tankies are insistent that Taiwan is the only goal.
Yeah but nukes.
China probably has more working nukes than Russia. Maintenance hasn’t been their strong suit, making them a liability. I wouldn’t be surprised if 9/10 aren’t working, or will malfunction on launch, causing Russia to nuke themselves, and the best part is they don’t even know which ones actually got maintained.
He’s going to have to do something, they’re going to have their own economic issues to deal with…
Their gdp is production of weapons right now. After they lose no one is going to want these weapons and they have been produced for the trash.
My point is it’s not real growth.
I mean yeah, but the EU is also an available Option
When it comes to military, EU is basically NATO which is led by USA.
Europe could stand against Russia without American support. probably not China though. china couldn’t attack any American aligned state without facing humiliation though
So US then?
It is, but I wouldn’t count on our potential to wage an effective modern war in functional cooperation with the many countries in the EU. Especially when it is a war taking place out of Europe and not a defensive action.
A militaristic endeavor would surely be held up and manipulated by opposing countries within the alliance, just like it is now with economic decisions.
I’m highly biased but that seems like an easy choice, geography notwithstanding.
Good. Even if nobody likes 'murica, their weapons work well enough to deter China from doing something stupid.
Imagine if the roles were reversed, and it was China arming i.e. Panama. How would you feel then?
(Because the USA has done a lot of "something stupid"s as well).
Edit: Folks, you can analyze the bigger picture without being a tankie. It’s unfortunate that so many ex-Redditors would rather block and report any display of critical thought
Imagine if the roles were reversed, and it was China arming i.e. Panama. How would you feel then
False equivalence, Panama’s risk of being suddenly invaded in the current political climate is nearly zero. Taiwan (is #1), on the other hand, has to be ever vigilant. Also, Panama doesn’t house the ‘rightful’ government of the US.
How about Cuba, then?
Same deal. They’ve suffered an unjust embargo, sure, but are under no real threat of invasion.
I probably should have said Cuba in my main comment. Doesn’t look like it helped people understand, though!
There’s nothing to understand, it’s the same situation. Neither Panama nor Cuba are currently under threat from the USA. The USA does not claim ownership over either, and is not threatening their sovereignty.
You’re the one not understanding the false equivalency.
Would you feel comfortable with China putting weapons on Cuba? Because the US got real upset last time, and as you said, the US doesn’t even have plans to invade Cuba (anymore)
It would be irksome, sure. But there is no amount of weaponry that China could supply Cuba with that would threaten the USA (short of nukes), so it would be a moot point. Business as usual. Taiwan similarly has no hope of success in attacking China, regardless of how many weapons the USA provides. Meaning: this only works one way, and if China is upset about that then maybe they should keep their eyes (and hands) within their own borders and everything will be fine.
Obviously they’re different. But failing to empathize when given the analogy shows either the inability or unwillingness to understand China’s position.
it’s just a poor analogy, not worth taking seriously.
I understand the PRC’s position just fine because they’ve been explicit about it for decades: They believe that Taiwan, an island they’ve never controlled, is theirs by imperial right based on the Qing dynasty’s rule over it for ~200 years prior to 1900.
We don’t need to “empathize” with a desire for imperial conquest, we just need to stand in the way of it.
The US wouldn’t be arming Taiwan if China wasn’t making the claim that it is part of China. Taiwan poses literally zero threat to china. There is no US comparison here.
It’s the same shit with Ukraine and Russia, and China is watching closely. It’s probably easier politically for Republicans to fund a nation not in conflict, because the deterrence doesn’t look like as big a win for Biden, so this is why they intelligently to along with it.
From Wikipedia:
Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a country in East Asia.
What were you saying?
What’s your point? Did you just stop there and not read the next sentence that says “It is located at the junction of the East and South China Seas in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the northwest”?
My point is that Taiwan IS a part of China. Two different governments but the same country. And both say they are the “real” China.
Wait until you hear about the official names of China, or North and South Korea
(For the uninitiated: People’s Republic of China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and Republic of Korea. Tl;dr there’s more than one issue if you’re going off the country’s official name for which land they own)
I’ll piss on the CCP any day of the week, thank you very much. I’m a communist, by the way.
Nobody needs to understand chinas positions. They are irrelevant.
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.ml means ‘Marxist-Leninist’. From their about page:
“In particular, I would like to see someone (or a group of people) create a mainstream, or liberal instance. That should help to avoid further drama, and avoid attempts to turn lemmy.ml into something that it is not.”
But really, it’s Mali. But they could have set it up that way for the Marxist Left thing
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/.ml#:~:text=ml is the Internet country,domain (ccTLD) for Mali.
Yeah that’s what I mean. Same as .dj is Djibouti, but people use it for music; or .mu (Mauritius) or .am / .fm (Armenia/Federated States of Micronesia); .io (Indian Ocean Territory) for tech (from Input/Output); .gg (Guernsey) for gaming or gambling; or .tv (Tuvalu) for Television.
If you’re comparing China/Taiwan circumstances to USA/Panama I’m sorry but I cannot call that a critical thought. The only similarity is proximity.
As an American who knows how evil our government is, I would be like “good for panama but also China is probably not doing this out of justice and freedom”
Neither is the US. We’re doing it because Taiwan is a strategic ally
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ask South Korea
너 지금 한국에 사는 사람한테 답하는 거야…
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No, but I thought it was funny someone likely from the West tried to use that argument when I suggested the idea of a weapon deployment next door might make you uneasy
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Why don’t we ask South America, the Middle East, and Vietnam what they think about the US?
but it’s clear which is the better option for many
… American tax dollars are at this moment funding the genocide of Palestinians.
EDIT to add: I should clarify I’m no CCP apologist, nor do I uplift China as an example of what we should strive for. But I also really get tired of seeing America put on a pedestal. America was built on genocide, slavery, and exploitation, I don’t see how it should ever be an example of how to do things better, BECAUSE that line of reasoning (“at least we’re better than them”) has been used to justify many of the horrors of our history.
By using that bit of propaganda, you’re contributing to things like Americans looking the other way/enabling - for the past 75 years - genocide. It’s the same “they’re savages” shit that was used to justify literally the most savage acts against Native Americans.
Our democracy also isn’t actual democracy. By definition, a democracy must represent the will of the people. Ours does not. It is already a failed democracy, and has been for my entire life. America also produces more propaganda than any other country. Do we have more personal freedoms in many areas than people in China? Absolutely. Are there many areas throughout society where I think America has pushed the world forward and made it a better place? Absolutely.
But I’m getting really sick of seeing America compared to China just to say “we’re better”.
Funny you should ask
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2015/04/30/vietnamese-see-u-s-as-key-ally/
Yet four decades after the controversial war, the Vietnamese public sees the United States as a helpful ally and even embraces some of the core tenets of capitalism.
Today, the Vietnamese view the U.S. in a positive light. About three-quarters of Vietnamese (76%) expressed a favorable opinion of the U.S. in a 2014 Pew Research Center survey. More highly educated people (89%) gave the U.S. especially high marks. Young people ages 18-29 were particularly affirmative (89%), but the U.S. is seen positively even by those who are old enough to have lived through the Vietnam War. Among those ages 50 and older, more than six-in-ten rated the U.S. favorably.
Yeah I shouldn’t have used Vietnam as an example bc I am aware that they’re somehow largely favorable to the US still, but the lasting effects of US imperialism on the population there is what I was really trying to get at.
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Past atrocities does not justify today’s actions by another at the present time.
I’m not saying that. I’m saying that holding America up as a standard and saying that we’re somehow better is hypocritical and dangerous because it helps to justify/overlook shit like what’s happening in Palestine rn, and I’m sick of the general mindset exactly because it has helped lead to the ignorance and complacency we see with a genocide that is fueled largely by American desire to retain influence in that region for capitalistic purposes, with no regard for human rights.
Vietnam has a much longer historical animosity with China than the with the US.
I mean yeah no shit, they’ve been at it for thousands of years lmao.
And, as I’ve said elsewhere I was more getting at the human rights atrocities perpetrated by the US which still have great effect on Vietnam.
I’m in no way trying to justify anything. Again, I’m just saying I’m sick of seeing people hold the US up as “hey look we’re better” because I really don’t know that we are. We care about human rights at home, to an extent, but we don’t give af who that affects in other parts of the world. Is that really better than China pretending to care about it’s citizens with communism while abusing their human rights and exercising insane governmental control over their lives?
The US has been and continues to be the direct and indirect perpetrator of a lot of evils, and the more I learn about these things, the more I dislike seeing America characterized as a standard of morality, because it directly reflects propaganda which has allowed for many of these atrocities to happen.
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Cuba and Venezuela are both in Latino America. And both have being targeted by the US as “cold” enemies.
Greetings from Hanoi. The Vietnamese in general view the USA quite favorably. Much more so than they feel about China which is regularly killing their fishermen and destroying VN oil and mineral development facilities. The 1000 years of Chinese occupation seems to have also left a bit of a bad taste.
Taiwan is a full democracy, not a flawed one. At least according to the widely respected Economist Democracy Index.
Taiwan is more democratic than Canada and Germany. And a lot more than the US, but that’s not surprising.
That’s fine! We should not invade Panama. I don’t think the US is currently planning on it, but after the last 20 years I’m pretty sure most citizens would be fucking glad for any excuse for our military to think twice before invading a foreign country.
Countries helping arm one another is good. Every country should have the capacity to defend itself. My country got steamrolled during WWII because we had few and outdated wapens
Gives me Cuban Missile Crisis vibes.
I’m not as happy that the US sells arms, but I’m convinced by the geopolitical climate that arming Ukraine and now I might add arming Taiwan is better for the world than worse. Refilling Israel’s Iron Dome is probably a good idea too, though we are yet to see what the US sends and how defensive or offensive those weapons we send are.
There might be better comparisons though in the weird chess games we played in the middle east with Russia. They armed some insurgents, we armed some insurgents, etc. Afghanistan was a disaster for Russia too, though it was worse for us.
So quietly that no one knows about it
I realize that you think you are being clever, but actually that’s precisely the point. They want the CCP to know about it otherwise it’s pointless as a deterrent.
I understand it entirely. It’s posturing.
They seem to be mocking this journalist, not the US.
Quietly? They have been doing so for at least 40 years. Everybody knew and knows.
It’s in the BBC ffs how quiet can it be?
Give them a bunch of nukes and biological weapons and after they arrive send a message to the PRC
“Just a fyi, we sent them a 100 but they only received 80. Be a real shame if Taiwanese operators had planted them in randomly selected cities on the mainland.”
It will be hilarious way to end the world.
Aaaand… Música, maestro!
The ultimate end of the world song. Just as the canisters release Covid-20 through 30 plus airbourne HIV
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
There’s a theory that Taiwan could achieve mass destruction with just regular cruise missiles, no need for actual WMDs.
The destruction of Three Gorges Dam would kill millions of people from the resulting flood. Be a tough target and air defense would be a nightmare, but it is still within Taiwan’s cruise missile range.
There’s been no acknowledgement ever of this plan, but it’s pretty obvious.
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…and Israel, for that matter.
At least Taiwan isn’t an apartheid state.
Where is that legalized race segregation even hinted at in that article?
Also, an editorial is not really sufficient to make that argument. Editorials are like opinion articles.
That’s quite an old article though
How is Israel an apartheid state? Don’t they have an active Arab population?
Thanks for the article. I’ll have to read this later. It looks like it answers all my questions on that topic.
I mean, yeah, why wouldn’t they?
Should we just let China carpetbomb Taiwan instead?
And act just like Israel?
The US is wrong to support Israel’s genocide of Palestinians.
The US is right to help Taiwan defend itself against assimilation by the CCP.
Genocide and imperialism are bad. Supporting the victims of them to defend themselves is good. Not so hard to understand, is it?
If China had the chance, they would love to act like Israel is acting towards palestinians, yes.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
When US President Joe Biden recently signed off on a $80m grant to Taiwan for the purchase of American military equipment, China said it “deplores and opposes” what Washington had done.
It is sending a clear message of strategic clarity to Beijing that we stand together," says Wang Ting-yu, a ruling party legislator with close ties to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, and to US Congressional chiefs.
He says the $80m is the tip of what could be a very large iceberg, and notes that in July President Biden used discretionary powers to approve the sale of military services and equipment worth $500m to Taiwan.
But Dr Lai says it’s possible to make educated guesses: Javelin and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles - highly effective weapons that forces can learn to use quickly.
A war-gaming exercise conducted by a think-tank last year found that in a conflict with China, Taiwan’s navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle.
The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery - repelling an invasion on the beaches and, if necessary, fighting the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the towns and cities, and from bases deep in the island’s jungle-covered mountains.
The original article contains 1,687 words, the summary contains 202 words. Saved 88%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
Let’s hope this is enough of a deterrent…
The best weapons are ones that make it so you never need to use them.
So the US is funding Taiwan, Ukraine, and [checks notes] …Israel? Makes perfect sense to me
Proxies against Russia, Iran and China.
Iran feels like just Russia Proxy with an extra step tbh.
These days it’s more the other way around, Russia has gotten so weak Iran is propping up Russia to cause mischief and take attention away from Iran and where their other proxies are playing.
So like a man in the middle proxy?
Iran is more of a man-on-the-side proxy for Russia imo.
There’s only so much they can do if Taiwan is unserious about its own defense. Exhibit A: the fact that eliminating conscription has apparently turned into a bipartisan consensus in Taiwan, in spite of the hollowing out of Taiwan’s military. Who exactly is going to be operating all that expensive military equipment?
Wtf you talking about?!?! They raised the conscription age to 40. I just have friends who just finished their conscription. The mass majority of us already consider ourselves independent. We have our own currency, our own government, our own laws.
Best believe if Xi bear attacks, we are stepping up to beat those China-nese scums.
Conscription period used to be 3 years, then 2, then 1, then 4 months. Finally it became too obvious that 4 months is a joke, so it’s being grudgingly raised back up, but only to 1 year. Still barely time to get any proper training done; for comparison, Israel’s conscription is almost 3 years and includes women.
The Taiwan government also persistently underpays military service members. The result is that it never hits its targets for professional (non-conscript) personnel, then wrings its hands about it…
That’s very different from your “Exhibit A”. Pretty far from what you said about eliminating conscription. Ya sure it’s 1 year now for now. The military thinks it’s enough for now. We pay the government for their expertise. We trust them here.
One year is barely enough to get proper training?
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Check out the latest Julian Dorey podcast with Andrew Bustamante, damn insightful, especially about Taiwan and China.
