I watched a bit of the meeting, not the whole thing, but the bit where Trump and Vance started lashing out at Zelenskyy. There’s been a lot of talk about it on here, and I agree Trump and Vance are big man babies trying to bully Ukraine into an unfavorable deal, but I’m still not clear on how this affects, well, everything I guess. Can someone ELI5?
The USA is finished as a world power. It may descend into a fascist developing nation, there may be a civil war, they may trigger ww3. Who knows.
Even before Trump and Vance lashed out, it was a shitshow. Every time Zelenskyy brought up security, Trump dismissed it because the the minerals were “more important.”
European leaders were certainly watching, and their main takeaway was certainly that Trump can and will sacrifice the security of American allies for money.
Europe and many of the US’s allies had lower military spending and did not to pursue nuclear programs because there was the expectation that the US would help protect these countries. This was exactly the promise that the US gave to Ukraine that got them to give up their nuclear research.
Now that it’s become clear that the US cannot be relied upon for security, many of the US’s allies are certain to start reconsidering their stance on the military and nuclear weapons. As US soft power crumbles, I expect that new, smaller factions will arise to fill the void, and I expect that China will likely try to expand its influence as well.
Nice response!
The press conference was a big fucking deal. Photos of it are likely to make it into school textbooks.
What you’re seeing is a re-alignment of the global hegemony. The last time that happened, it took 2 world wars to sort it out.
Absolutely, it’s a major event. We’re history, yay…?
Internationally, the wars continue. The US military stockpile is structured so that if there’s a full US commitment to a war, the stockpile will last a couple of years while the US transitions to a wartime footing, building and renovating munitions factories to continue the war effort. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and the EU started sending their stockpiles to Ukraine, and they ramped up munitions production - but neither power pivoted ro full wartime production. Hell, the European NATO countries were still debating whether to dedicate 2% of their GDP to defence.
With Trump fully in Putin’s pocket, the US is going to drastically scale back the supply of arms to Ukraine, and the EU isn’t in a position to make up the entire shortfall. Even now, they’re talking about giving money and supplying some arms, but I’m not seeing any reports of building new factories or scaling up production at existing ones (it takes a couple years to fully scale up production, so extra arms available now needed to be started 2 years ago, and extra production now won’t make a noticable difference until two years from now). So Ukraine is going to be struggling for arms.
The good news for Ukraine is that Russia has also been struggling with both manpower and munitions. Putin is relying on literal cannon fodder from other countries and his own prisoners to make the war palatable to his people. But I think it’s possible he may decide to push harder, annex a bunch of Ukraine, then declare that the war is over and spend some time consolidating his gains.
In the meantime, I’d expect the US to be increasingly focused on the war in Israel, both as a distraction from Ukraine and because Trump really wants ‘wins’ there - in this case, he likely wants to build some hotels, and he’d really like to be able to proclaim that he “brought peace to the Middle East” [the genocide of the Palestinian people being a mere technicality to Trump].
With the US being increasingly unreliable, Europe will focus more on their own affairs (including Russia and Ukraine). The US will go their own way on things, increasingly alone and alienated. It will never be fully trusted again (nor should it be), so accomplishing foreign policy goals is going to be increasingly hard, and accomplishing domestic goals isn’t going to be much easier.
The US economy will eventually collapse and the weight of the national debt will come crashing down. That’s going to affect other countries as well, though I don’t know enough to be able to predict how badly. The US will end up the big loser and Russia can probably chalk up some wins in Ukraine. The Arabic countries will make noises about Israel, but I don’t think full-scale war will happen there, just long-simmering tensions with both sides encouraging terrorism.
I think China and India are poised to be the big winners: they’re both staying publicly out of things, biding their time, waiting for America to fall and Europe to be more internally-focused. And at some point, human civilization collapses, because we couldn’t agree that maybe we should just buy less stuff and all the infrastructure and farmland is swallowed by rising sea levels, extreme drought, floods, wildfires, hurricanes and whatever else is waiting for us.
fuck man that’s a grim but true picture
My man spitting facts
Frankly, European politicians should have seen something like this coming. It’s never been a secret that the U.S. doesn’t share the same values as the EU. Storing sensitive data in America? Buying weapons from America? Who the fuck thought outsourcing national security was a good idea?
It will take generations for the U.S. to earn credibility again, and I don’t expect that we’ll ever earn the same level of trust. We don’t deserve it.
It will take generations for the U.S. to earn credibility again, and I don’t expect that we’ll ever earn the same level of trust. We don’t deserve it. You’re right about that, except you will never earn any trust whatsoever only just go lower and lower until you have a real civil war to determine is if it’s a fascist nation or not
The US is like the Facebook or Google or Twitter or Amazon of countries. Out of simple convenience and ease of use people centralized their lives around us and now that we’re obviously falling apart they’re going to have to make a huge effort to get rid of our influence.
I just realized that this country has been enshittifying itself my entire life.
We’re the inshitternet of countries.
We really don’t know right now. The US essentially broadcast to the world that they are both diplomatically weak and compromised by the Russians and cannot be trusted or relied on. The meeting with Zelenskyy and the recent trade spats has indicated that the US can and will turn on its historic allies if Putin tells them to.
Beyond that point, everything is pure speculation. My guess? The US will continue to erode from within due to further economic and social disintegration. They are looking at a historic economic collapse which will severely impact the lives of US citizens. I can see them beginning to put increased pressure, possibly militarily, on Mexico and Canada as Trump uses the resources in said countries as a bargaining chip to placate US businesses that will start putting pressure on Trump. Once reality of the situation starts to hit the average US citizen then I think there is a very real possibility of civil revolt.
As for the EU, my guess is they will see a burst of increased unity and solidarity much like how Canada is now. Whether that lasts or will be acted upon remains to be seen, but I think it has become obvious to the EU leaders that Russia is a hostile power on their doorstep and they are on their own; the US will not help them. They will now have to contend with meddling and interference from both Russia and the US as both seek to disrupt and cause unrest in Europe. If the EU plays its cards right they could emerge from this stronger and more prosperous than ever. de Gaulle was absolutely right about the USA.
it has become obvious to the EU leaders that Russia is a hostile power on their doorstep and they are on their own
That is the sad propaganda fed by US empire used to submit them to Ukraine war they provoked. Ultimate CIA play to fight Russia with 0 US cost, while paying for US weapons. Russia should be looked at as a friend.
A government that will invade on the flimsiest of pretexts, kidnap your citizens, and lie constantly is anything but a “friend”.
Removed by mod
You are a useful idiot. Russia could have chosen not to invade a country with whom they had a treaty specifically saying they wouldn’t.
https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
Ukraine’s constitution demands/ed it stays neutral. Budapest is not a suicide pact.
Riddle me this: does a country have to stay neutral if another country attacks them?
Hello comrade.
Obviously war on Russia is the smartest thing ever, and has historically been so successful. So the natural reaction when your main war sponsor backs away is to double down and buy that former sponsor’s weapons while sacrificing social spending to do it. Totally not what a CIA stooge that says “Fuck Europe” would say, and better be a CIA stooge than have a brain cell against suicide.
You really are a useful idiot, subtly blaming Ukraine for its own invasion.
It is so disturbing and shameful that people are walk around thinking this war was unprovoked. If that can’t be changed, you can still wake up and realize that pursuing failure would be stupid.
Do tell, how did Ukraine provoke the invasion?
It was a joint US/Ukraine provocation for sure. First, Ukraine’s nazification rule started with US coup in 2014, and US controlled IMF sabotaging/making Yanukovych’s EU trade deal impossible. US/west’s insincere participation in Russia’s peaceful attempt to deal with Ukrainian nazification and hostilities towards Russians, the Minsk accords, was an insincere delay tactic to arm Ukraine. The Apartheid laws against ethnic Russians, and US arming of nazi paramilitaries that killed over 5000 in Donbas since 2014. US’s open door NATO policy for Ukraine membership, and plans for missile bases there, together with ramp up of Donbas terrorism and no talks with Russia in early 2022, forced Russia’s SMO. The concerted western propaganda disrespecting Russia on its security is clear direct proof of evil intentions behind the provocation of the “desirable” war, named “a strategic US imperative (for it to continue indefinitely)” as well.
I would expect the first consequence - if it hasn’t happened already - would be for other countries to recognize that they can’t share intelligence with us and shouldn’t trust any they get from us.
exact
No one is able to tell you that. Hell, no one can really predict the general direction things are going.
Chaos is a ladder.
The immediate impact is that the mineral rights treaty wasn’t signed. Past that the impact remains to be seen.
I’m unfamiliar with the mineral rights treaty specifics, but I remember it being said that it was a pretty shite deal for Ukraine anyway, and that it likely wouldn’t have been signed anyway
It didn’t include any security guarantees for Ukraine.
Our russian controlled white house will probably host several more PR stunts like this as they work towards their goal of fully cutting off US aid to ukraine.
I think it makes more sense to look at this as the latest step in that plan, rather than an unexpected event that with uncertain consequences to puzzle over. If this particular stunt was axed at the last minute, the situation in 6-12 months would likely be the exact same.
Ukraine was never going to accept a shakedown attempt from a proven welcher working for their enemy, nor agree to a full russian victory just because it was called peace.
It delays Trump’s ability to build a few resorts and golf courses there. Trump was/is hoping to “friend” both sides in order to do it.
Well, most US allies are now confronted with video evidence of how stupid and unreasonable Trump is even when your nation is actively at war against an international adversary who is stealing territory and people are dying.
You can probably bet that even China will be more reticent to cooperate with the US on anything. As much as Trump wants to say America can take care of itself, that’s not true at the moment. More nations will likely start looking at BRICS rather than the G7/G20.
In Canada, people are really worried. I’m anticipating that the tariffs will go through, then cause harm to America, and be paused. After that, I’m hoping cooler heads prevail so he doesn’t fucking invade. If he does, wow, he’s stupid. That’s WW3 material.
I don’t know if anyone knows for sure. We all can only guess. In the short term that probably is a win for Russia (less support for Ukraine). In the long term… Who knows?
Maybe it will galvanise the EU… Or break it. Maybe it will turn out to be a weird show to surprise Russia, or maybe Trump wants to sell Ukraine to get Russian support against china.
Just guessing. I definitely don’t know.
This meeting isn’t something new or out of the blue, but will likely continue current trends.
Ukraine immediately reached out to European countries for support, many of whom indicated that they would support Ukraine even if the USA didn’t. I expect this to continue the creation of some kind of post NATO European defense treaty/system without American involvement.
This will also weaken a lot of other American led security alliances given that Trump has hinted at demanding more from them as well.
There will be peace in Ukraine!!! 60% chance. Along that, there will be a more multipolar world where Russia and China have more influence over former US colonies.
The other 40% chance is NATO colonies suicide themselves for CIA agenda of pathethic foolishness of diminishing Russia, while also begging the US to destroy them more, and begging the US to allow them the privilege of antagonizing China.
Europe is going full Tropic Thunder over this in pathethicness. All swearing to keep war on Russia, while Italy is begging all of them to have a US summit so that they can further subjugate themselves to Trump. Answer to world is not demonic wars destined to fail. And Europe must eliminate their CIA agents sacrificing their prosperity. Only 60% chance they wake up from the opportunity though.
