While some contractors dismiss the plan as political rhetoric, many say they can’t afford to lose more people from an aging, immigrant-dependent workforce still short of nearly 400,000 people.
Both presidential candidates promise to build more homes. One promises to deport hundreds of thousands of people who build them.
Former President Donald Trump’s pledge to “launch the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” would hamstring construction firms already facing labor shortages and push record home prices higher, say industry leaders, contractors and economists.
“It would be detrimental to the construction industry and our labor supply and exacerbate our housing affordability problems,” said Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. The trade group considers foreign-born workers, regardless of legal status, “a vital and flexible source of labor” to builders, estimating they fill 30% of trade jobs like carpentry, plastering, masonry and electrical roles.
And then the response from the democratic candidate ends up being “Harris vows to deport Trump. Builders say it would increase their crews and drive down home costs.”
The idea has also drawn skepticism on logistical grounds, with some analysts saying its costs would be “astronomical.”
This is like being skeptical that Nazi Germany would send people to death camps because it would be too expensive.
Bryan Dunn, an-Arizona based senior vice president at Big-D Construction, a major Southwest firm, called “the idea that they could actually move that many people” out of the country “almost laughable.”
Societies have been able to move millions of people around since they developed railway systems.
What’s almost laughable is the state of denial people are in.
Last year, the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, enacted a series of restrictions and penalties to deter the employment of undocumented workers. Many immigrant workers hastily left the state even before the policies took effect, with social media videos showing some construction sites sitting empty.
This is the best case scenario in theory. Immigrants would flee to safety before the US government could harm them. However, in practice, where can they go? Many people already come here because their home countries are too dangerous for them.
This gets to a broader point. I’ve seen a lot of discussion in the past about trying to flee the country if things go wrong. There isn’t going to be anywhere to flee to that’s any safer if the US becomes a christo-fascist dictatorship. The EU is going to have to fend for itself against Russia. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will be on their own. Unrest in North America, South America, Africa and Asia will only get worse. We are seeing a global rise of fascism along with dictatorships becoming bolder and more willing to challenge the international order. Anyway we slice it, the only good outcomes involve fascists staying out of power.
People simply don’t care. The amount of times people talk about fleeing the country vs even changing their local government is completely out of whack. People don’t try, expect to move somewhere else and not try and not have their problems follow them.
People simply don’t care. The amount of times people talk about fleeing the country vs even changing their local government is completely out of whack. People don’t try,
People have an instinctual flight or fight response to danger. And it’s rational for an individual to consider flight in the face of the most powerful military in the world. Discussions about safety are important. Most discussions I’ve seen qualify the need to flee based on Trump taking power. Most of the people who participate in them are explicit in their intentions to vote for Kamala and the Democratic Party in general.
I for one would like to see more discussion about changing governments. However the issue is less a lack of caring or lack of trying.
expect to move somewhere else and not try and not have their problems follow them.
It’s more as this gets to, a lack of perspective. People are thinking in terms of their own self-interest. Specifically themselves and the people they care about in their immediate social spheres. This is human behavior in a nut shell. People are not considering the broader context, in part because we’ve never had fascism at a global scale before. Even in WWII there were limits to the reach of fascist nation states, some continents saw little to no direct conflict at home.
What we are seeing now is unprecedented in history. If the US becomes a christo-fascist dictatorship we are going to see the world completely divided into sphere’s of influence. Dictatorships will become completely unchecked as the US switches from maintaining the world order to expanding it’s sphere of influence in the western hemisphere. A war with Mexico is not out of the question in this scenario. Neither is Canada falling to it’s own far right.
The rise of the far-right isn’t unique to the US, it’s been happening in India with Modi, Milei in Argentina, and in the Philippines with Bongbong Marcos. The far right is taking power and entrenching themselves all over the world. Modi and friends in India are buying news outlets to keep them toeing the party line and spewing propaganda. But unless a person is a political news junkie they can easily miss all of this broader context. People aren’t being informed about the global rise of fascism, so they aren’t discussing strategies that reflect that.
Yeah… IM no fan of trump but the reason housing is so expensive has nothing to do with needing more houses.
I’ll be so glad when this election is over and he can just lose the rest of his criminal cases and get sentenced, or have his final Big Mac Attack and dodge justice forever.
This is proof they don’t understand the endgame here. The only (legal) type of slavery left in the United States is prisoner labour. It is not a coincidence that the right wants to make so many things criminal. It’s also not a coincidence they want to keep poor people desperate because it makes them more likely to commit crime. It’s not a coincidence they support minimum sentences.
More crime, more free labour, more for profit prisons selling services…
This is exactly what I’ve been thinking lately. And on top of already existing laws, make new ones that criminalize currently normal things. Hell, the South enacted new laws after slavery ended and only applied them against Black Americans. Why stop there, why not increase penalties for certain crimes from misdemeanors to felonies and make 3 felony convictions mean a life sentence?
The only part I disagree with is the for profit prisons part. 8% of prisoners are in private prisons which is 8% too many, but 92% are in publicly funded and operated prisons. And those publicly operated prisons sell the services of their trapped slave labor for so many more things than stamping license plates or road work. Not only do they fight fires and clean up after natural disasters, they also make kit (armor, helmets) for the armed forces, they pick crops, they manufacture white goods (washing machines, refrigerators)(I can’t find a link specifically mentioning appliances and I’ll update this it I find one), and so much more. Shoot, some cities’ budgets would be blown up if not for the availability of publicly held prison slaves.
Well if they can keep income inequality growing, there’s a big pool of wage slaves to draw from with much better optics.
Translation: Builders would rather go broke than pay anyone a living wage.
Almost all trump related policies will drive up costs for the consumer. He’s only worried about lining the pockets of his rich friends, not making daily life for the average family more affordable
during the 2016 election cycle, the national association of home builders pac gave $361,500 to democrat campaigns and $1,820,000 to republicans (83.4%).
for the current election (reported so far), they are even more unbalanced at 85.9% republican.
[1](https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/summary/2024)
remind me again, mr tobin, which political party wants to deport your ‘vital’ workers?
source ↩︎
Pretty much.
I walked by a construction site when I lived in California, I heard everyone speaking Spanish.
I walk by a construction site now that I live in Indiana and I hear… everyone speaking Spanish.
I’m guessing that at least some of them aren’t citizens.
Don’t need to be a citizen to pass eVerify. I’m working with six natural born citizens, one naturalized citizen, three green card holders, three work visa holders and a “dreamer”
Anytime you come across someone shitting on immigration ask them who built their house.
I’ve been saying this for years, the American dream is subsidized by cheap labor from South of the border. Without them we would be doing far worse
Not to mention illegal immigrants are half as likely to commit crime as American citizens
Not to mention illegal immigrants are half as likely to commit crime as American citizens
It’s like Umberto said in The Ranch: “We live in fear everyday. 5 miles over the speed limit and it could ruin our life”
“We live in fear everyday. 5 miles over the speed limit and it could ruin our life”
Almost every time I was stuck behind a slow person on the L.A. freeway, they were Latino. I guessed that was why back then and I still do.
We should be building apartments, stop building unscalable housing
Orrrr how about everyone has the freedom to live in the dwelling of their choice that they can afford .
Sure, if you stop externalizing all the costs that let them afford it.
If you want an economy where every citizen has a chance to be middle class, you have to find some other source of labor to do working class jobs. That’s why we shouldn’t even want American citizens to do these jobs. Bring in immigrants that get paid well relative to where they came from to do that stuff and send our citizens to school and do middle class work. It’s a win-win for all involved.
That’s not even mentioning our problem with an aging population that requires immigration to sustain social programs.
If you want an economy where every citizen has a chance to be middle class, you have to find some other source of labor to do working class jobs.
Or labour jobs could pay middle class wages, like they did a couple of generations ago.
whoa but hold on, what if some guy in suit on TV says they don’t deserve it because they aren’t a boss?
Yeah, but it’s still difficult manual labor. Not work I’d want for myself or my hypothetical children.
Why not pay builders a fair wage then?
It’s certainly not labour costs driving up house prices.
99% of people just don’t want to do the work it’s not a matter of wage and most of the time you get twice the worker when you hire Mexicans just speaking from experience
I guarantee you more people would find themselves wanting to do the work if it paid more.
The great pay exists in some construction sectors. State and Federal work have “wage rates” where laborers, carpenters, operators etc. have a mandatory wage and benefits. On a job I am currently on the laborers are earning $64/hr and our company is having a problem with staffing. Plenty of people want the pay, but as mentioned before, it is really tough work, and the deadlines mean that you can’t fuck the dog. That being said, this work is limited to citizens and monitored closely. I know it is cliche to say “no one wants to work anymore” but as a 30 year old I am one of very few young people I work with. I get it, the work is brutal and you have no energy to have a work life balance at the end of the day.
You see that none of that is a good thing right?
I don’t want to work a job that destroys my work life balance for any pay. Doesn’t matter how much. Nobody should have to give up their life for money.
Young people are more likely to want to take care of themselves and not have the toxic mindset you and I were brought up with. They aren’t just taking it on the chin, or putting in their time, or whatever bullshit platitudes my generation and older like to sling at young workers or those not willing to eat shit for peanuts.
You are just perpetuating that toxic mindset, in servitude of the moneyed class.
The work they do fucking sucks regardless of the pay.
Not always about the wage. You could pay 200k per year and still have trouble finding people willing to climb up on a roof day in and day out.
Especially if they find out that roofer is the fourth-most dangerous job in the U.S.
https://www.ishn.com/articles/112748-top-25-most-dangerous-jobs-in-the-united-states
Incidentally, police officer is ranked at 22. Well below garbage collectors (5), delivery drivers (7), or agricultural workers (11).
delivery drivers (7)
I shudder at the thought of driving for work. It’s already so hard to keep up spatial awareness of the crazy drivers for an hour or less. I cannot imagine 8 hours of that.
And on top of all of that, you usually have to provide your own vehicle. Which means you basically drive it to death much earlier than the average lifespan of the car. If we’re talking something like Uber Eats, they don’t even cover your gas.
I cannot imagine it be a worthwhile investment. The only people I know who do Uber are retired and do it out of boredom. Fortunately, I don’t know a single soul who does it for a job (without having another job to do as well).
I know I guy who does Door Dash. He says it let’s him be his own boss where he can work as much or as little as he wants to. And he said he got tired of dealing with the new generation of workers at his old job.
If it works for you, that’s great. But it’s like @FlyingSquid@lemmy.world said, there’s so many cons to work for Uber.
I don’t know anyone lately, but I know plenty of people who did it when they were younger. Including a trandgender friend who did it for maybe 20 years. I’m guessing she doesn’t have a lot of job opportunities here in Indiana. She’s such an awesome person too.
Try 11
There must be a good reason why why family quit 11! I’ll trust their judgement on this one.
The way I see it, there’s two options:
-
Pay people more. 300k, 400k, 500k, whatever it takes. Surely there’s a number that people would feel is worth the risk. The obvious downside is that increases the cost of construction.
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Make the process of roofing safer - invent new safety gear or safety practices, automation equipment that can be operated from the ground, introduce legislation that encourages those practices or subsidizes the new equipment. The obvious downside is this requires upfront investment and cooperation between government and industry.
Either way, the current practice of “throw cheap immigrant labor at it until it goes away” is not tenable.
It’s not just “cheap” immigrant labor. Those laborers bring ability that you have a very hard time finding here.
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Then the wages are still too low…
It really is not that simple.
It really IS that simple. You tell some schmuck off the street “I will pay you $300K a year to climb on roofs and nail down shingles all day.”, you really think they’ll say no? I don’t. Same with retail, same with food service, same with sales, painting, engineering, and more.
Historically underpaying job markets aren’t experiencing a “”““labor shortage””“” from lack of openings or bad press, they’re just finally realizing that paying people like shit then treating them poorly isn’t going to get them more workers.
They’ll say yes. They won’t last long. The churn will be great and then there will be shortage. It really isn’t as simple as pay.
So your solution is an impoverished underclass that cannot escape work no one will do, you are sick.
Not at all.
And by that logic no country in the world would have soldiers either.
People have been doing dangerous jobs for pay since the existence of pay. If the pay is right someone will perform your dangerous job. If the payout isn’t worth the risk then they won’t. It’s the free market in action.
I have known enough growers and builders that no matter the pay, people cannot simply will themselves able to do that kind of work. It’s just.Not.That.Simple.
The free market currently says that a new home is worth X dollars because of what people are willing to pay vs. the labor going into it. Materials are cheap compared to the work. The rates laborers get paid stem from the free market equilibrium on that. Labor rates go up, house prices go up, home ownership goes down. Builders in the US get about 15% margin on building and selling new homes. You have maybe 10% of wiggle room before the profit in building homes is not worth the effort. So laborers could get paid…10% more at best before home prices go up. That’s not going to attract many more people to offset immigrant labor demand.
They will say no especially when they hear his dangerous it is. My uncle fell off the roof and ended up with a hernia. It took forever to do the surgery to fix it. And really, 300k? How expensive do you think that’s going to make a house? As much as I hate the idea there’s only so much that you can charge for something. We’d have to somehow go after the corporation for unprecedented profit in addition to raising wages.
We also wouldn’t have, you know, food, since agriculture and meat-packing are heavily dependent on undocumented immigrants and almost every kitchen in every restaurant in the country is staffed with undocumented immigrants. I want to think that the importance of food and housing would make Republicans not actually do this, but you never know with these crazy fuckwits. Perhaps they think child and prison labor would make an adequate replacement.
Everything to maximize profits. and one should examine the US agricultural sector that relies heavily on cheap illegal labor.
The right wing listened to Milton Friedman talk about illegal immigration and went ‘yeah!’, missing the point entirely.
