- The Harris campaign is showing new strength in must-win states ahead of the party’s convention.
- In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.
- It’s a reflection of the continued reset of the 2024 race after Biden’s exit.
Vote! Complacency loses every time.
I’m so happy this message is making it’s way to the top
It needs to not be close. Biden was polling way ahead in 2020 but he only won effectively by like 85k votes. Yes, he got 7 million more votes total but in the closest states that could have seen him lose, only about 85k people was the difference between Biden winning the presidency vs Trump winning.
2020 was decided by even less than that! Closer to 43,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
It needs to become a nation-wide single-issue to revamp our campaign finance and election system.
That means abolishing the Electoral College and FPTP, addressing Gerrymandering, implementing ranked choice voting, and publicly-funded elections. This is the only way we fix our democracy at the root of the problem.
A path only open by Republicans losing this election, which is a critical point that can’t be missed.
Crazy idea: How about the person who gets the most votes wins?
yOu MeAn MoB rUlEs?!?1?
Vote like your and your loved ones’ lives depends on it, because they probably do.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.
That’s within the margin of error. That doesn’t really count as a lead.
No, but Trump’s leads were also within the margin of error, so it’s encouraging to see a swing, even if it might just be noise.
She’s only been campaigning for a few weeks. The DNC hasn’t even happened yet. I would call this pretty phenomenal.
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Most people have a really, really awful understanding of how statistics work.
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We don’t know the sample size; so we don’t know the margin of error.
I mean, click a couple links and it’s right there
MI: 619 PA: 693 WI: 661 All of registered voters
Using the amount of total registered voters in each respective state and a 95% CI, we get the following margins of error MI: ±3.939% PA: ±3.723% WI: ±3.811%
Depending on the exact lead (NYT only shows round percents, not specific numbers for each response), all of those are potentially within the top end of that margin of error.
Am I trying to claim that a swing from being down by ~4% to being up by ~4% means nothing and is indicative of nothing? Of course not. But man, most people really do not at all understand how statistics work, and I really wish people would stop talking out of their ass about it.
It was paywalled for me 🤷♂️
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So which links did you click? The one that goes to NYT is paywalled.
NYT polls aren’t pay walled
It’s easy. When Kamala is down we say that polls don’t matter as much they used to, but when she’s up polls are obviously right. The margin of error is just a thing we use after the fact to justify whether the polls are useless (Kamala losing) or absolutely correct (Kamala winning)
If I remember this correctly, the square of the error for the sum of (or difference between) two independent measurements is the sum of the squares of the individual errors. Gauss something.
That would make the error for the 8 point swing be sqrt(2×3.8²) or about 5.4. So at least the swing is significant in each state.
Also, the error for the average of 3 variables is sqrt(e1²+e2²+e3²)/3 or 2.2 so the average lead in the 3 states is significant.
But we can’t make a significant claim about the lead in each state.
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This is a good comment and we should all try to think like this.
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Which people? I don’t recall seeing any comments like that on Lemmy, at least.
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Maybe not, but it’s encouraging! Harris/Walz are stoking enthusiasm because they want to actually improve people’s lives, not just repeat the same tired culture-war bullshit…
You don’t know the margin of error unless you know the sample size. I didn’t see the sample size mentioned in the article.
Let’s make sure the ballot box reflects that. Vote, get active, and get involved. Even if you don’t live in a swing state, the down ballot races matter far more than you think
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MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
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She’s doing her best to throw Michigan already.
Go vote. Only we can throw the election. They have no say.
My private corporation run a pool the other day and it turns out a third party has 60% of the votes.
Source: Trust me
You are trusting same other corporations for the pool in the article so i don’t see why you shouldn’t trust me
Well for starters, you’re spelling “poll” wrong.
Because who are you? What was your sample size? What was your methodology?
I’m not saying polling is always right just pointing out that they’re usually based on more than one random persons word.
Because who are you? What was your sample size? What was your methodology?
I’m someone on lemmy just like you who does pools for fun. Who are they and what’s their methodology?
Here’s the polling with all the relevant data if you actually wanted it and aren’t just being snarky.
Have a great day friend!
edit: broken link
I interview myself 2000 people and 60% of them are voting for a third party.
