Polls don’t matter, especially this far out.
Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.
If the polls say he’s 100% going to win. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.
Polls always matter, you just have to understand polls.
This is with third party options and show Biden up 2% which is probably close to margin of error.
It doesn’t mean Biden has it in the bag, but it means his chances are improved.
But Biden risks the same dangers Hillary did in 2016.
People don’t really want to vote for them, they just don’t want trump. So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
It’s a dangerous game, and we wouldn’t have to play it if we ran a candidate popular with Dem voters.
The margin of error for polls six months out from election, if memory serves, is about 14%.
I think people are phrasing this wrong: it’s not that the polls are worthless, it’s that it does not tell you what’s going to happen on Election Day in any real sense. They’re useful for watching trends and gauging short term changes and impact. They are useful for telling you how things are going. They do not tell you anything remotely useful about how things will be.
What horseshit… you need to know the number of people polled in order to know the margin of error.
I mean Larry sabato just cited this stat days ago but I’m sure you’ll say he knows nothing.
You can average the top performing polls to get this.
Math is math. In order to calculate the margin of error you need to know the sample size. The number of months involved is not a part of the calculation.
Then it’s not margin of error, the predictive accuracy - whatever the term is - is far worse 6mo out from an election (5 now i guess) than the ones that are days or a week or so out. That’s the point. Polls now are useful but not for saying who will win in November. You may as well forget the top line numbers as soon as you see them unless you’re comparing them over time and/or looking at cross tabs for broad demographic trends, which is also limited but useful in some ways.
Fair enough… if we both agree that “margin of error” has nothing to do with number of months; I have no argument.
It’s wild, but it raining on election day might have more an effect than anything that’s happened recently.
True, but since you refused to run this year we’ve had to make do with Joe.
Literally all the dems have to do is not be shitbags.
Weird that Republicans are never held to such standards.
“Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love” old people (Republicans) vote, always, because they are retired. Democrats work and need to go out of their way to vote, so you have to convince them.
So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
That’s largely how Romney lost to Obama in 2012. Republican turnout sagged in a year when both candidates’ approval ratings were underwater. Mitt lost a bunch of midwestern states that a candidate like Bush or Trump could have won, thanks to his vulture capitalist career alienating blue-collar conservatives and his weird knock-off religion alienating evangelicals.
Whoever on your account team wrote this one is funny. They’re right. But I love how they wrote that Biden will poll well, when the other guy has been spending weeks saying how bad he’s doing.
Consistency my guys. Get your stories straight. Especially if you’re going to comment walls of text multiple times every hour every day. Don’t make it so obvious.
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Also local elections can be decided by one vote and can be just as important.
Typically more important for the average citizen. Federal changes may effect you in years, decades or never. Whereas your local politicians impact your day to day life.
Definitely not the case for women and queer people this year, but generally true.
You haven’t been to the circus show that is my city board of ed meetings.
I see people saying their vote doesn’t matter when they’re in a highly partisan district
I see people saying it when they’re in heavily gerrymandered districts and deeply disenfranchised states. Dems have been playing the “Just go out and vote!” game in Florida for a quarter century, and Repubs keep finding new ways to yank the football. Even ballot initiatives don’t work, as the Florida gerrymandered legislature just reverses out whatever voting rights or decriminalization laws the public passes.
Okay, then protest. And also VOTE.
Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything” is just allowing them to dictate everything that will happen.
Okay, then protest.
Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything”
Studying the history of the electoral system and the patterns of disenfranchisement isn’t equivalent to “doing nothing”. And in the end, you have to be rational rather than idealistic. When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.
When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.
Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest. You have politicians that you admit want to become the next Putin but won’t say anything or of fear of pepper spray.
There’s an internet meme about France surrendering. French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets. American politicians try to take away your democracy and American citizens just roll over to expose their belly.
It’s not the French that surrender at the slightest bit of difficulty.Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest.
So do American college kids.
French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets.
French politicians have been squeezing the pension system since at least 2006, and the street protests have come and gone without discouraging new efforts to dismantle the system.
Bully to them for trying, but without material control over industry, they’re all sound and fury.
I’ve been voting for 24 years and have never seen this happen. They double down and that gets their voters even more fired up to vote.
Well said. People also need to take steps to ensure they have not been kicked off of voter rolls (the Republican dirty tricks just never end). I think sites like vote.org can help with that.
I’m not going to vote for Biden until he stops funding a genocide. You cannot say put pressure on them and vote for them no matter what. They do not give a fuck what you think if you’re going to automatically vote for them. That’s why the uncommitted votes in the primaries scared them so much.
Trump thanks you for your service.
Oh no, you’re only the thousandth person to tell me that. It’s so persuasive. Either I vote for the guy funding a genocide or the Boogeyman gets elected1!!111!!1
Yes, that’s the reality of the situation, whether you like it or not. If you don’t care if that happens, fair enough. But don’t try to say that not voting for Biden doesn’t help Trump.
I didn’t say that. I said that at this point, months into this debacle, it’s obviously not persuasive to me. I am not willing to sell the lives of Palestinian children to make my life marginally more comfortable.
And what do you think Trump will do to help the Palestinian children? Please be specific.
You can’t get extra dead. Here’s the IPC’s take on Gaza right now-
The famine threshold for household acute food insecurity has already been far exceeded and, given the latest data showing a steeply increasing trend in cases of acute malnutrition, it is highly likely that the famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been exceeded. The upward trend in non-trauma mortality is also expected to accelerate, resulting in all famine thresholds likely to be passed imminently.
Those kids aren’t going to be alive in November.
Those children will die regardless of who you vote for or if you don’t vote at all. It’s a horrific tragedy that is completely out of anyone who isn’t in power’s control. So instead of worrying about that, worry about what you CAN control - preventing fascists from gaining more power and making things even worse than they already are.
No a tragedy is a plane crash. A tragedy is a tornado directly hitting the school gym everyone sheltered in.
This is a war crime, a massacre, an act so vile that civilized countries have agreed it should not be done, ever.
And we do not have to be complicit.
I’d be willing to bet you couldn’t point to Palestine on a map this time last year.
I bet you don’t know who I am, what I went to college for, or where I was before college. Because you’re very wrong.
Vote for the guy that’s unfortunately not willing to break with decades worth of support for Israel or the guy who’s said he’d send in ground troops wins.
There is actually a third option this time around, not that he’s any better with bird flu on the way. But no it’s never an either/or proposition. You are in fact allowed to leave that spot on the ballot blank.
Just understand that you have zero ground to stand on by not voting.
Yet another fallacy meant to coerce votes for bad candidates. I’m not politically disengaged. This is a political choice.
As long as you’re voting on everything else on the ballot, fair enough. Also, I’m hoping you don’t live in a battleground state.
Oh yeah. It doesn’t work if you don’t vote at all. They have to know they left those votes behind.
And they’re right. And you’re wrong but don’t want to listen, so here we are.
If the choice is people dying or people dying then the system is no longer legitimate.
So do you plan on doing anything about it, or just going to pout about it and feel good about not voting when those people get bombed harder?
This is just virtue signaling. If you cared about the people you’d want to reduce the harm they’re facing, not try to moralize your bad choice on the Internet.
This is a two-way street though. You’d think the democratic establishment would also want to increase their electoral odds in order to reduce harm.
Like, the stakes are so high, and it’s so weird to see them betting the horse on Israel. It’s frankly irresponsible for Democrats to be playing politics like that at a time like this.
Ah yes all moral actions are just utilitarian so we should abandon morality.
K
American voters have never had the power to decide US foreign policy.
That you think everyone here lacks intelligence enough to fall for that nonsense speaks volumes about your own.
No I think you’re just being willfully ignorant because it’s easier and those dead kids are over there.
Right… the dead kids. The perfect hot button rhetoric to swing around when you want to really drive the point home that “biDeN bAaAD!!”
You’re seemingly as textbook as one could be.
He could… Just not. That is an option.
Anything to get Trump elected, eh?
Oh look, another original take. You’re only the (checks notes) hundredth comment attempting to gaslight me into thinking I’m a trump supporter because I’m not blindly loyal to Biden. Not even the Democrats, Just Biden. And you guys accuse Trump supporters of being a cult.
Hmm… when 99 people in a room full of a hundred people suggest something-
Maybe it’s best to not believe that one dude that disagrees with them.
Spades are sometimes just spades. Regardless if they tell you they’re not.
No. The bandwagon is not a logical argument.
It’s not a bandwagon. It’s just simply a basis of observation.
That is literally the bandwagon argument.
Cause letting the guy who wants to send in the us military to “wipe em all out” win is waaaaay better for those people you pretend to care about.
Hilariously that would give them more access to aid than Israel is giving them. Trump wouldn’t be able to stop the US military from distributing aid as part of its normal operations mode. As usual he has no clue how the military works.
dafuq kinda nonsense is this? lesse, a president who supports wiping out Palestinians is better for Palestinians because then they get more aid?
???
Classic Lemmy. They’re quicker to blame you than they are Biden for bad policy.
A true optimist would suggest that Joe Biden could absolutely reverse course. It’s like they’ve all given up on that possibility.
Pretty much. I’m open about the fact that I would vote for him if he reversed course. Nope, still just shouting at me and calling me a trump supporter.
K
Mathematically, either Biden or Trump will win, with 100% certainty.
As lamentable as it is for Palestinians, you drawing the line in the sand over foreign policy in Palestine & Israel will not help Palestinians. I would even go as far to say that Biden’s policy on Israel is marginally better than what Trump’s would be. The GOP is actively hostile against Palestine. At least with Biden we are getting (gentle) push-back on Israel.
So, if it’s a given that either Biden or Trump will win, you have one of four options, depending on your political leaning:
- Liberal and vote for Biden. Helps Biden.
- Conservative and vote for Trump. Helps Trump.
- Liberal and don’t vote for Biden. Helps Trump.
- Conservative and don’t vote for Trump. Helps Biden.
I don’t see any other option, but if someone has one - one that helps Palestine - I’d be interested to hear option 5.
If the choice is genocide or genocide then it’s not a real choice and this election is not legitimate.
In spite of you saying it’s not a real choice, you seem to be choosing #3 or #4.
Bold choice. We’ll see how it goes.
No. That’s your categorization. Not mine.
It is my categorization. But it’s a logical framing.
I’d be interested to hear if there are any other logical possibilities outside the four I named.
You might be making an illogical choice, and that’s ok. It is you, and you can make your own choice.
The democratic party realizes it’s losing voters instead of gaining them and reverses course. And yes that requires being willing to carry out the threat of not voting for Biden in November.
Lemmy.world, shocking
Oh don’t worry most of .world wishes I would just shut up and let them enjoy their sense of moral superiority over Trump’s supporters.
Projection at it’s finest.
My ratio on this subject disagrees with you.
Put pressure on politicians to do better
And even if they dont do better, elect them anyway. That’ll teach them.
Don’t vote and help their much worse fascist opponents get elected instead, which will affect the general population, not the wealthy elites. That’ll teach them!
Either way the working class gets fucked
You’re correct. But they get fucked much harder one way than the other. It’s all about harm reduction.
Harm reduction is a myth, people have been preaching harm reduction for decades and there’s been no reduction in harm. Quite the opposite, poverty has increased. Homelessness is at a rate not seen since the Great depression, income inequality is the highest ever recorded. The most percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck is higher than any other level recorded. There has been no reduction in harm.
Wasn’t homelessness during the great depression roughly at a percentage rate of 1.5% of the nation (upwards of 2 million people)? Are you sure we have a homeless rate not seen since the great depression? As for all the other stuff…yeah that’s pretty bad, especially the income inequality over the decades and decades.
And VOTE DOWN BALLOT. If Democrats voted down ballot as frequently as Republicans do, the Republicans would lose House and Senate by a wide margin.
Convicted felon Donald Trump?
Convicted felon Donald Trump.
I’m sorry, how many counts was it? 3? No. 4? No….somebody help me out here.
The mean number of US presidential felonies is .75.
Trump is truly an extraordinary president, since he’s single handedly raised that number from zero to where it is today, and he’s not even done yet.
Truly providing an excellent education in why statistical means are sometimes very misleading.Can’t wait to see someone seriously say, “what’s the big deal if he’s a felon? I heard that almost three quarters of presidents commit a felony.”
Gonnaa be wild when he gets that mean up to 1 or higher. It’ll seem like every president did at least one felony.
Yes, there was a 3 and a 4 in the number.
Actually, it was 3 AND 4! Together! 34!
edit: dang, someone already made the joke. Lol.
Say it again for the people in the back
Convicted felon and adjudicated rapist Donald Trump.
Twice impeached, quadruple indicted, convicted felon and adjudicated rapist, Donald Trump!
I don’t know the specific legal terms to express this, but let’s not forget the civil fraud trial brought by Letitia James as well.
Piling on!
15 year penalty!
Well now it’s starting to sound like the Shia LaBeouf song.
Actual criminal Donald Trump.
All things that just keep making him more appealing to republicans!
Why the fuck is Trump even able to run? He’s literally a fucking criminal, and was impeached. I dont understand how our political system or even judicial systems work at this point.
Disclaimer: Fuck Trump.
That being said, convicted “criminals” should still be able to run for any public office in my opinion. A tyrant CAN capture the judiciary and imprison their political opponents. This is in fact what happened in the Indian elections right now. This is in fact what happened in the US elections in the early 1900s, where a socialist candidate ran for President from prison. What was his crime? Striking when the State had deemed it illegal to do so.
Happened in Brazil too in 2016. Corrupt prosecutor (now congressman) worked with corrupt judge (who later became justice minister and is currently a senator) to imprison Lula. He couldn’t run for the presidency and Bolsonaro got it. Later, the Supreme Court found that the case was based on lies and there were coordination between the prosecutor and the judge and they reinstated Lula’s freedom and political rights.
But now, the tables have turned, and after Bolsonaro’s actions in the failed coup on 2022, the Supreme Court took away Bolsonaro’s political rights and he can’t be a candidates for any office until 2030.
In most us states they take your voting right when you are convicted. This is not compatible with running for president as a convict imo.
Have you considered that maybe that’s tyranny as well?
What if, for example, someone decided to make weed a felony because he couldn’t outright make being black illegal?
Wait is there a correlation between being black and smoking weed?
No, a correlation between being black and being arrested for weed. In my city, they made the legal status of the drug indeterminate and gave cops DISCRETION on whether to arrest or cite someone for having pot. Not a felony now in any event, misdemeanor or civil citation or nothing but how do you think this discretion will be used?
Nixon did specifically consider weed a hippies and black people thing, but even if that was statistically true selective enforcement was always the plan.
You want to know what this [war on drugs] was really all about? The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying?
We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news.
Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.
Ah, that makes more sense.
"You want to know what this [war on drugs] was really all about? The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying?
We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news.
Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.”
- John Ehrlichman, Assistant to the President for Domestic Affairs under President Richard Nixon
https://www.vera.org/reimagining-prison-webumentary/the-past-is-never-dead/drug-war-confessional
Oh sweet summer child, everyone smokes weed. Cannabis prohibition was about giving police the power to arrest anyone they want to - and they used that power to arrest Black people.
And if you don’t smoke weed? Well what about this little baggy we “found in your pocket”?
I really, really, really hate the phrase “Oh sweet summer child”. Is it possible to be any more patronizing? Couldn’t you just say it normally?
Not that I care about either of you guys or your argument, but I gotta point out that it’s a phrase intended to be insulting and condescending. You’re just letting the other guy know they got to you by writing this.
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There has certainly been a correlation for being black and being charged with possession of weed if that’s what you mean.
I never understood the logic behind that. What’s the reason for it?
Are we afraid that all of the criminals will form a Crime Party and campaign to legalize burglary and murder? 😈
Or do we think the type of person who would commit a violent crime is going to be incentivized to not commit a crime because of losing their right to vote, in a country where half the people don’t vote anyway?
Before I mug this old lady, I really should consider that this upcoming election has huge ramifications and I really don’t want to risk losing my right to vote. I don’t mind jail, community service, or monetary fines; it’s voting that might prevent me from commiting this offense. 🤓
No, I think it’s more likely that some people don’t want other people who are disproportionately convicted of crimes (you know, those people) to have a voice.
I’d like it if anyone convicted of fraud / criminal deceit / murder could never be president, but as our nation’s common sense appears to have withered and died, the intent would eventually be twisted to suit some nefarious purpose.
Funny how 8 years ago, people kept saying “don’t worry about Trump, there are checks and balances in place”. None of that talk this time around!
Because there’s now an infrastructure built up around him with plans on how to override those checks and balances (Project 2025).
We also saw the checks and balances do fuckall because they were captured by fellow criminals.
Those people never realized their stance is just as idiotic as “I cross the street without looking both ways because if they run me over, they’ll have to pay”… or “I have the seat belt on, I can crash at top speed and nothing will happen to me”
There are no hard requirements for being president beyond those listed in the Constitution:
- Be a natural born US citizen
- Be at least 35 years old
- Have resided in the US for 14 or more years.
That’s it. The framers of the Constitution presumably felt being a convicted felon would be enough for an electorate (or the electoral college, at least) to simply not vote for that person.
also this prevents a rogue prosecutor and judge from convicting a presidential candidate and blocking them from running. this way it is up to the people, whether the conviction is legitimate or not.
to be clear i am not saying trump’s conviction is illegitimate, just speaking generally. i could definitely see a world where trump pushes for this with a Democrat candidate (remember all the “lock her up” stuff?). i hope the legal system is robust enough to appeal a rogue situation but at some point it may not be.
I would like to see more requirements:
- Upper age restriction
- Does not lie about well known facts from scientist, like Covid-19.
Upper age restriction
And what happens when medical science increases life expectancy? U would have to amend the constitution to pass this. Think of how nightmarish it is to do this. Now think of amending this AGAIN when life expectancy increases every year.
Does not lie about well known facts from scientist, like Covid-19.
Who decides what “well known facts” are? A particular non-political committee? The supreme court was supposed to be this committee. It clearly became political quickly…
And what happens when medical science increases life expectancy?
Make the upper age limit be average life expectancy minus X years. This has the added bonus of motivating politicians to actually try to increase average life expectancy.
Who decides what “well known facts” are?
The scientific community, and certainly not the Supreme Court. Not sure how you came to that conclusion.
The scientific community, and certainly not the Supreme Court.
Because there are different “scientific communities” - some of them rogue and stupid. I’m not the poster you were responding to, but I would assume that the arbiter of your hypothetical of which scientific communities would be valid would go to the Supreme Court.
No. The scientific community polices* itself with peer review. The rogue and stupid communities are peer reviewed out of existence. You can submit all the falsified “research” you want, but if your published results can’t be replicated, you will be labeled a quack and your “findings” will go ignored by the rest of the scientific community.
No government-affiliated judicial body is involved in verifying science, because judges are experts in law, not science.
Do you know how long it takes to replicate another’s studies? Sometimes that never happens.
Upper age restriction
instead of this I would like to see independent physical and mental acuity tests performed and released publicly. no need to bring age into it if they are fit. and if they aren’t fit they shouldn’t be able to run even if they’re young.
Sure but I also want that the person to be able to last the whole 4 years period without running into any of those health issues with time. Might be hard to get the health measurements right and get people to accept it. Easier for people to just understand the person did not meet the age criteria.
Thought leaders have been raising this issue for years. Among those calling for barring criminals from running for office: some guy named Donald Trump.
Shouldn’t you have the right to run for office when you have paid back your debt to society?
I mean if you can get an opponent convicted and it prevents them running, it feels kind of undemocratic.
BTW I’m not talking about tRump, he should be behind bars since ages already.
Yeah probably. The same logic ought to be applied to felons who currently lose their right to vote. Rights being treated as privileges…
I’m pretty sure the last guy to run for office from a cell was a socialist.
Why the fuck is Trump even able to run?
Because nobody is actually stopping him. Republican state level leaders all love him. Dems are too terrified to threaten him with more than a wrist slap. The police are in his corner. Big Business is bankrolling him. The Media keeps accidentally falling face first onto his dick. And 1:3 Americans still insist he’s better than The Other Guy.
So he’s still listed on all the ballots. He’s still the GOP’s nominee. And if he wins the lion’s share of electoral college votes (by hook or by crook) he’s going to be the President in January.
He IS a felon. But while he went through the impeachment process several times, he was never convicted. And there is no rule or law that says a felon can’t be president.
While voting for Trump, or even entertaining his views, is a red flag warning. Like it or not, he is legally entitled to run. Perhaps the rules and laws should be changed. But to do that would require either a unified congress or a super majority of a party willing to do so. And I suspect, that as it currently stands, neither side wants to limit themselves from gaining the power and status of national or state office brings to them for any reason.
This is by design. So you can’t just get some charges on your opponent and disqualify them
By the same logic felons should be allowed to vote. Instead you got the war on drugs
they should.
Wait, Trump isn’t allowed to vote now? Lol if true.
Oh, I whole heartily agree. There is a lot tit for tat in politics. And rules are meant to be bent and twisted to one’s own end. It could end up being a slippery slope as easily as not.
Technically he is not a felon until he is sentenced. So he will be a felon on July 11th.
That said I agree not letting people run from office because of convictions just incentives the state to go after political enemies.
it could also be an amendment to the constitution if enough states agree but that’s probably even less likely.
and i’m not sure it should be. i could definitely see a world where trump pushes for conviction of a Democrat candidate (remember all the “lock her up” stuff?). i hope the legal system is robust enough to appeal a rogue court situation but at some point it may not be. And elections are time sensitive, would the appeal even finish before the election?
flawed as it may be this could be the best solution to guard against authoritarianism.
look at the aileen cannon situation. if that’s not a rogue court, i don’t know what is
exactly, imagine her overseeing a BS felony trial on Biden or whatever other D candidate.
In Germany, if you’re in jail you can’t be elected into office. You can however always cast your vote even from jail (except for rare and extreme political crimes such as terrorism, starting a war and such)
I dont understand how our political system or even judicial systems work at this point.
With a lot of grease.
Note: “grease” is old slang for money.
I prefer “kabloingie”, personally.
This is how the constitution is written. This scenario was never foreseen and our founders were naive.
Nice to hear it, but yeah FUCKING VOTE!!!
I find it exceedingly hard to believe that a conservative will not vote for Trump when it really comes down to the day. I think there are plenty that will say they won’t all the way up to that point though.
There are plenty of Conservatives who aren’t voting for Trump, they just get drowned out by the extremely loud cultists. Just look up Republicans against Trump.
Yeah the real surprise is why they are still registered with the Republican party when the party leaders clearly have thrown their support behind him.
Because they find voting Democrat to be more distasteful, for whatever reason. I have to imagine the people who swing the swing states have to be a really interesting mix of uninformed and having close relationships with people from both major parties. Like they only know the ideas at super high levels, basically just the slogans and spokespeople. It’s all vibes.
Or I could be way off, I dunno. World’s a wacky place
You can only vote in the primarys if you are registered with the party having the primary.
They probably want to keep being able to vote within the Republican party.
In my state, you can be independent and vote for either.
But yeah, I voted in the Republican primary this time, to vote against Trump, even though I would have wanted Nikki to lose, but would rather risk that than Trump.
Never even occurred to me it would be state specific. But now that you said it, it’s obvious. Thanks
That’s something a swing voter might be likely to do, but it’s not a cause of being a swing voter.
I’m not understanding. Why would a swing voter stay in one party?
Perhaps my point didn’t come across. I’m not trying to explain why a swing voter would stay in one party. I was trying to understand what might cause someone in the US in today’s world to be the kind of person who could feasibly vote for either party when they are wildly different on the major topics in the zeitgeist.
Republicans were gigantic pieces of shit long before Trump.
They don’t even think he’s guilty of any wrong doing, of course they’ll vote for him.
Realistically the best you can hope for is many of them opting to not vote at all.
I think a substantial number of voters are going to hold their noses and vote for the shitty candidate their party presented.
It’ll be interesting to see how many people stay home compared to prior elections. People are super political and angry for a variety of reasons, but the choices are awful.
There’s definitely going to be a shift back in his direction amongst the faithful as conservative media does its work, but the thing to look for is whether than holds for low-information “undecideds” who make up about a third of the electorate. Depending on how much his case stays in the media, how much it affects his own ability to reach voters (i.e., does he get sentenced to prison pending appeals? Does he end up under house arrest with a parole officer looking over his shoulder?), and if people like the Minutemen or Proud Boys engage in violence over it, people in the middle who might have otherwise voted for him on the basis of “economy feel bad, maybe different big man make economy feel better?” might continue to peel away from him, and that’s a greater risk to his chances than what the diehards will or won’t do.
Good news is a lot of them were in bad health in 2020 and refused to wear masks
Wow, it’s almost like putting the entire weight of the RNC behind a convicted felon in a rematch against the guy he already lost to once in order to control the voting power of the cult that formed around him is, dare I say it, a bad political move? Like, such a bad political move that even somebody who knows absolutely nothing about politics should have been able to see this one coming?
Imagine how detached from reality you need to be to genuinely believe that getting slapped with a felony conviction will somehow help your campaign.
Imagine how detached from reality you need to be
I agree with you. But I just want to point out that we are far, far past the “imagine if” stage. At this point in time, it is “witness in reality” how detached from reality Trump supporters are.
“Imagine if” sounds dismissive and complacent. These people are an actual threat to everyone, including themselves.
If you aren’t angry about the shit these fucks are pulling, then get angry; if you are already angry, get angrier. Then go out and vote against them.
Drive people who are not voting for Trump to the polls. It’s easy to do and just requires taking a day off work.
Felonious Trump has a nice ring to it.
It works on multiple levels, too. Thelonius Monk’s style was all about embracing dissonance, and Trump is a walking, breathing, dissonance machine. Monk’s dissonance was sonic, and Trump’s is cognitive, but it still works.
*Edit: it works with album titles too! “Felonious Trump: Alone in Manhattan” is fucking hilarious.
I love the fact that we can now call Trump a convicted felon
you mean, Donny J Trump, the convicted felon? I too am glad that we can officially call the convicted felon Donald Trump a convicted felon.
We will see you in the white house January 20th copeing and seething.
why would I be in the white house on January 20th?
I mean, I know my user name, but that really would be a series of poor choices.
Wait. You’re not going? We were only going to go because we thought you were.
Phew
Is your name a dig at Lemony Snickett?
a dig at? fuck no.
in reference to? yes.
an homage to? yes.
Imagine voting against your own interests to “pwn the libs”.
Also precludes him from military funeral honors, which means anything he does get is invalid.
It means a lot to us that deployed that a draft dodging bitch like Trump would lose that entitlement. Oh, and if you vote for Trump, You support a draft dodging bitch so fuck you.
According to the 538 podcast I was listening to, he isn’t technically a convicted felon yet. The judge has to approve the verdict and enter the final judgement first.
They referred to him as a convicted felon-elect.
Every bit of news around (which old fuck is in the lead) is complete horseshit. Real polls can no longer be done. There’s an insane self selection bias and beyond that there’s an inherent participation bias.
Yup, this is why we follow it over time.
It went from pro Biden, to waffling back and forth, to pro Trump, to waffling back and forth, and now, here we are!
Let’s check the usual suspects:
Arizona: Tie, Biden+2, Trump+2-+4 Waffling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: No useful polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia: Trump +5/+6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania: Biden +1/+2 to Trump +2 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Tie to Trump+1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Biden +2/+7 to Trump +1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/Minnesota: Tie, Biden+2, Trump +3/+5 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/What this looks like mapped out:
This actually is an improvement for Biden who had been losing several of these.
If Trump takes either PA or MI, it’s game over. He only needs one of them to win.
After that, Trump needs any 2 of the remaining 4 states to win and Biden needs 3/4.
If Biden takes Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Trump takes Arizona, that means it will all come down to New Mexico and we have ZERO useful polling out of New Mexico, absolutely none.
New Mexico is 90% going for Biden. It’s not a swing state.
I’m excited for RFK to take a couple states and Congress votes in Trump. That’s not going to be a shit show at all. And I know that’s what’s going to happen because we’re in the timeline where things just keep getting worse. I think we split from the prime timeline sometime around Reagan.
Heh let’s see who people actually vote for. Polls don’t mean shit.
I mean, you’re right (see most every election before), and we shouldn’t become complacent.
vote early, vote often.
Turns out that Moderate heavy states like Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan don’t want to vote for a felon that threatens to jail his enemies.
You actually mean convicted felon, donald trump.
Not against the rules, so I corrected the title.
Nice to see the plain truth up there :)
This is a big deal. I’m extremely excited to get a look into these data. This would be an INCREDIBLE thing considering that Biden has been lagging Trump in the polls for over 450 days.
And whoever tells you polls don’t matter has their head up their ass. Polls do matter, a lot, especially this far out. People aren’t a monolith. People do change their minds and perspectives.
Apparent viability matters. Even a 2-5% hit in polling to Trump can take him from the range of viable to non-viable.
And yes, polling is flawed. In 2016 and 2020, the polling massively underestimated support for Trump. We need to keep this in mind when we look at these numbers,.
Keeping in mind that the trajectory of Bidens polling was into the carpet, pretty much since the inauguration.
If Biden can shift this towards an upward trend, he’s suddenly back in the game. Thats a sea change. Thats huge.
Polls matter, until the next poll comes out. The only poll with any lasting effect is in November.
Polls matter a lot when they start moving. There are plenty of people who pay no attention at all to news or politics. and those people are slowly finding out that Trump is now a convicted felon and may soon be wearing an orange jumpsuit.
No matter how the “Law and Order” GQP attacks the American Criminal Justice System, western societies have centuries of experience dealing with convicted felons. It is a stain that won’t wash out.
Agreed. I’m holding back to do any real analysis of this for about 10 more days.
People love to say polls suck, they don’t mean anything, its total none-sense, etc. Interestingly its always when their candidate is losing.
Now that these polls are shifting, my guess is the dorks who can’t tell up from down start shifting their stories, and soon after that, they’ll be pretending it was always their view.
Polls are important, especially in terms of this far out, and especially in-terms of the ‘appearance’ of electability. These are the weeks and months where momentum builds. A sudden breakout, or sudden drop in polling numbers is extremely consequential.
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Instructions unclear. Went to my polling place to vote and they said come back in five months.
