Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.
If the polls say he’s 100% going to win. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.
Polls always matter, you just have to understand polls.
This is with third party options and show Biden up 2% which is probably close to margin of error.
It doesn’t mean Biden has it in the bag, but it means his chances are improved.
But Biden risks the same dangers Hillary did in 2016.
People don’t really want to vote for them, they just don’t want trump. So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
It’s a dangerous game, and we wouldn’t have to play it if we ran a candidate popular with Dem voters.
The margin of error for polls six months out from election, if memory serves, is about 14%.
I think people are phrasing this wrong: it’s not that the polls are worthless, it’s that it does not tell you what’s going to happen on Election Day in any real sense. They’re useful for watching trends and gauging short term changes and impact. They are useful for telling you how things are going. They do not tell you anything remotely useful about how things will be.
Math is math. In order to calculate the margin of error you need to know the sample size. The number of months involved is not a part of the calculation.
Then it’s not margin of error, the predictive accuracy - whatever the term is - is far worse 6mo out from an election (5 now i guess) than the ones that are days or a week or so out. That’s the point. Polls now are useful but not for saying who will win in November. You may as well forget the top line numbers as soon as you see them unless you’re comparing them over time and/or looking at cross tabs for broad demographic trends, which is also limited but useful in some ways.
“Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love” old people (Republicans) vote, always, because they are retired. Democrats work and need to go out of their way to vote, so you have to convince them.
Whoever on your account team wrote this one is funny. They’re right. But I love how they wrote that Biden will poll well, when the other guy has been spending weeks saying how bad he’s doing.
Consistency my guys. Get your stories straight. Especially if you’re going to comment walls of text multiple times every hour every day. Don’t make it so obvious.
So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
That’s largely how Romney lost to Obama in 2012. Republican turnout sagged in a year when both candidates’ approval ratings were underwater. Mitt lost a bunch of midwestern states that a candidate like Bush or Trump could have won, thanks to his vulture capitalist career alienating blue-collar conservatives and his weird knock-off religion alienating evangelicals.
Typically more important for the average citizen. Federal changes may effect you in years, decades or never. Whereas your local politicians impact your day to day life.
I see people saying their vote doesn’t matter when they’re in a highly partisan district
I see people saying it when they’re in heavily gerrymandered districts and deeply disenfranchised states. Dems have been playing the “Just go out and vote!” game in Florida for a quarter century, and Repubs keep finding new ways to yank the football. Even ballot initiatives don’t work, as the Florida gerrymandered legislature just reverses out whatever voting rights or decriminalization laws the public passes.
Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything” is just allowing them to dictate everything that will happen.
Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything”
Studying the history of the electoral system and the patterns of disenfranchisement isn’t equivalent to “doing nothing”. And in the end, you have to be rational rather than idealistic. When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.
When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.
Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest. You have politicians that you admit want to become the next Putin but won’t say anything or of fear of pepper spray.
There’s an internet meme about France surrendering. French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets. American politicians try to take away your democracy and American citizens just roll over to expose their belly.
It’s not the French that surrender at the slightest bit of difficulty.
Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest.
So do American college kids.
French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets.
French politicians have been squeezing the pension system since at least 2006, and the street protests have come and gone without discouraging new efforts to dismantle the system.
Bully to them for trying, but without material control over industry, they’re all sound and fury.
Well said. People also need to take steps to ensure they have not been kicked off of voter rolls (the Republican dirty tricks just never end). I think sites like vote.org can help with that.
Don’t vote and help their much worse fascist opponents get elected instead, which will affect the general population, not the wealthy elites. That’ll teach them!
Harm reduction is a myth, people have been preaching harm reduction for decades and there’s been no reduction in harm. Quite the opposite, poverty has increased. Homelessness is at a rate not seen since the Great depression, income inequality is the highest ever recorded. The most percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck is higher than any other level recorded. There has been no reduction in harm.
Wasn’t homelessness during the great depression roughly at a percentage rate of 1.5% of the nation (upwards of 2 million people)? Are you sure we have a homeless rate not seen since the great depression? As for all the other stuff…yeah that’s pretty bad, especially the income inequality over the decades and decades.
I’m not going to vote for Biden until he stops funding a genocide. You cannot say put pressure on them and vote for them no matter what. They do not give a fuck what you think if you’re going to automatically vote for them. That’s why the uncommitted votes in the primaries scared them so much.
Oh no, you’re only the thousandth person to tell me that. It’s so persuasive. Either I vote for the guy funding a genocide or the Boogeyman gets elected1!!111!!1
Yes, that’s the reality of the situation, whether you like it or not. If you don’t care if that happens, fair enough. But don’t try to say that not voting for Biden doesn’t help Trump.
I didn’t say that. I said that at this point, months into this debacle, it’s obviously not persuasive to me. I am not willing to sell the lives of Palestinian children to make my life marginally more comfortable.
You can’t get extra dead. Here’s the IPC’s take on Gaza right now-
The famine threshold for household acute food insecurity has already been far exceeded and, given the latest data showing a steeply increasing trend in cases of acute malnutrition, it is highly likely that the famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been exceeded. The upward trend in non-trauma mortality is also expected to accelerate, resulting in all famine thresholds likely to be passed imminently.
Those children will die regardless of who you vote for or if you don’t vote at all. It’s a horrific tragedy that is completely out of anyone who isn’t in power’s control. So instead of worrying about that, worry about what you CAN control - preventing fascists from gaining more power and making things even worse than they already are.
Vote for the guy that’s unfortunately not willing to break with decades worth of support for Israel or the guy who’s said he’d send in ground troops wins.
There is actually a third option this time around, not that he’s any better with bird flu on the way. But no it’s never an either/or proposition. You are in fact allowed to leave that spot on the ballot blank.
So do you plan on doing anything about it, or just going to pout about it and feel good about not voting when those people get bombed harder?
This is just virtue signaling. If you cared about the people you’d want to reduce the harm they’re facing, not try to moralize your bad choice on the Internet.
This is a two-way street though. You’d think the democratic establishment would also want to increase their electoral odds in order to reduce harm.
Like, the stakes are so high, and it’s so weird to see them betting the horse on Israel. It’s frankly irresponsible for Democrats to be playing politics like that at a time like this.
Oh look, another original take. You’re only the (checks notes) hundredth comment attempting to gaslight me into thinking I’m a trump supporter because I’m not blindly loyal to Biden. Not even the Democrats, Just Biden. And you guys accuse Trump supporters of being a cult.
Hilariously that would give them more access to aid than Israel is giving them. Trump wouldn’t be able to stop the US military from distributing aid as part of its normal operations mode. As usual he has no clue how the military works.
Pretty much. I’m open about the fact that I would vote for him if he reversed course. Nope, still just shouting at me and calling me a trump supporter.
Mathematically, either Biden or Trump will win, with 100% certainty.
As lamentable as it is for Palestinians, you drawing the line in the sand over foreign policy in Palestine & Israel will not help Palestinians. I would even go as far to say that Biden’s policy on Israel is marginally better than what Trump’s would be. The GOP is actively hostile against Palestine. At least with Biden we are getting (gentle) push-back on Israel.
So, if it’s a given that either Biden or Trump will win, you have one of four options, depending on your political leaning:
Liberal and vote for Biden. Helps Biden.
Conservative and vote for Trump. Helps Trump.
Liberal and don’t vote for Biden. Helps Trump.
Conservative and don’t vote for Trump. Helps Biden.
I don’t see any other option, but if someone has one - one that helps Palestine - I’d be interested to hear option 5.
The democratic party realizes it’s losing voters instead of gaining them and reverses course. And yes that requires being willing to carry out the threat of not voting for Biden in November.
Polls don’t matter, especially this far out.
Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.
If the polls say he’s 100% going to win. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.
Polls always matter, you just have to understand polls.
This is with third party options and show Biden up 2% which is probably close to margin of error.
It doesn’t mean Biden has it in the bag, but it means his chances are improved.
But Biden risks the same dangers Hillary did in 2016.
People don’t really want to vote for them, they just don’t want trump. So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
It’s a dangerous game, and we wouldn’t have to play it if we ran a candidate popular with Dem voters.
The margin of error for polls six months out from election, if memory serves, is about 14%.
I think people are phrasing this wrong: it’s not that the polls are worthless, it’s that it does not tell you what’s going to happen on Election Day in any real sense. They’re useful for watching trends and gauging short term changes and impact. They are useful for telling you how things are going. They do not tell you anything remotely useful about how things will be.
What horseshit… you need to know the number of people polled in order to know the margin of error.
I mean Larry sabato just cited this stat days ago but I’m sure you’ll say he knows nothing.
You can average the top performing polls to get this.
Math is math. In order to calculate the margin of error you need to know the sample size. The number of months involved is not a part of the calculation.
Then it’s not margin of error, the predictive accuracy - whatever the term is - is far worse 6mo out from an election (5 now i guess) than the ones that are days or a week or so out. That’s the point. Polls now are useful but not for saying who will win in November. You may as well forget the top line numbers as soon as you see them unless you’re comparing them over time and/or looking at cross tabs for broad demographic trends, which is also limited but useful in some ways.
Fair enough… if we both agree that “margin of error” has nothing to do with number of months; I have no argument.
It’s wild, but it raining on election day might have more an effect than anything that’s happened recently.
True, but since you refused to run this year we’ve had to make do with Joe.
Literally all the dems have to do is not be shitbags.
Weird that Republicans are never held to such standards.
“Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love” old people (Republicans) vote, always, because they are retired. Democrats work and need to go out of their way to vote, so you have to convince them.
Whoever on your account team wrote this one is funny. They’re right. But I love how they wrote that Biden will poll well, when the other guy has been spending weeks saying how bad he’s doing.
Consistency my guys. Get your stories straight. Especially if you’re going to comment walls of text multiple times every hour every day. Don’t make it so obvious.
That’s largely how Romney lost to Obama in 2012. Republican turnout sagged in a year when both candidates’ approval ratings were underwater. Mitt lost a bunch of midwestern states that a candidate like Bush or Trump could have won, thanks to his vulture capitalist career alienating blue-collar conservatives and his weird knock-off religion alienating evangelicals.
Removed by mod
Also local elections can be decided by one vote and can be just as important.
Typically more important for the average citizen. Federal changes may effect you in years, decades or never. Whereas your local politicians impact your day to day life.
Definitely not the case for women and queer people this year, but generally true.
You haven’t been to the circus show that is my city board of ed meetings.
I see people saying it when they’re in heavily gerrymandered districts and deeply disenfranchised states. Dems have been playing the “Just go out and vote!” game in Florida for a quarter century, and Repubs keep finding new ways to yank the football. Even ballot initiatives don’t work, as the Florida gerrymandered legislature just reverses out whatever voting rights or decriminalization laws the public passes.
Okay, then protest. And also VOTE.
Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything” is just allowing them to dictate everything that will happen.
Studying the history of the electoral system and the patterns of disenfranchisement isn’t equivalent to “doing nothing”. And in the end, you have to be rational rather than idealistic. When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.
Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest. You have politicians that you admit want to become the next Putin but won’t say anything or of fear of pepper spray.
There’s an internet meme about France surrendering. French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets. American politicians try to take away your democracy and American citizens just roll over to expose their belly.
It’s not the French that surrender at the slightest bit of difficulty.
So do American college kids.
French politicians have been squeezing the pension system since at least 2006, and the street protests have come and gone without discouraging new efforts to dismantle the system.
Bully to them for trying, but without material control over industry, they’re all sound and fury.
I’ve been voting for 24 years and have never seen this happen. They double down and that gets their voters even more fired up to vote.
Well said. People also need to take steps to ensure they have not been kicked off of voter rolls (the Republican dirty tricks just never end). I think sites like vote.org can help with that.
And even if they dont do better, elect them anyway. That’ll teach them.
Don’t vote and help their much worse fascist opponents get elected instead, which will affect the general population, not the wealthy elites. That’ll teach them!
Either way the working class gets fucked
You’re correct. But they get fucked much harder one way than the other. It’s all about harm reduction.
Harm reduction is a myth, people have been preaching harm reduction for decades and there’s been no reduction in harm. Quite the opposite, poverty has increased. Homelessness is at a rate not seen since the Great depression, income inequality is the highest ever recorded. The most percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck is higher than any other level recorded. There has been no reduction in harm.
Wasn’t homelessness during the great depression roughly at a percentage rate of 1.5% of the nation (upwards of 2 million people)? Are you sure we have a homeless rate not seen since the great depression? As for all the other stuff…yeah that’s pretty bad, especially the income inequality over the decades and decades.
I’m not going to vote for Biden until he stops funding a genocide. You cannot say put pressure on them and vote for them no matter what. They do not give a fuck what you think if you’re going to automatically vote for them. That’s why the uncommitted votes in the primaries scared them so much.
Trump thanks you for your service.
Oh no, you’re only the thousandth person to tell me that. It’s so persuasive. Either I vote for the guy funding a genocide or the Boogeyman gets elected1!!111!!1
Yes, that’s the reality of the situation, whether you like it or not. If you don’t care if that happens, fair enough. But don’t try to say that not voting for Biden doesn’t help Trump.
I didn’t say that. I said that at this point, months into this debacle, it’s obviously not persuasive to me. I am not willing to sell the lives of Palestinian children to make my life marginally more comfortable.
And what do you think Trump will do to help the Palestinian children? Please be specific.
You can’t get extra dead. Here’s the IPC’s take on Gaza right now-
Those kids aren’t going to be alive in November.
That wasn’t my question. What is Trump going to do to help Palestinian children?
Those children will die regardless of who you vote for or if you don’t vote at all. It’s a horrific tragedy that is completely out of anyone who isn’t in power’s control. So instead of worrying about that, worry about what you CAN control - preventing fascists from gaining more power and making things even worse than they already are.
No a tragedy is a plane crash. A tragedy is a tornado directly hitting the school gym everyone sheltered in.
This is a war crime, a massacre, an act so vile that civilized countries have agreed it should not be done, ever.
And we do not have to be complicit.
Nothing you said contradicts Samus.
I’d be willing to bet you couldn’t point to Palestine on a map this time last year.
I bet you don’t know who I am, what I went to college for, or where I was before college. Because you’re very wrong.
I’ll bet I know what you don’t know. And that’s where Palestine was on the map prior to October 7th.
Vote for the guy that’s unfortunately not willing to break with decades worth of support for Israel or the guy who’s said he’d send in ground troops wins.
There is actually a third option this time around, not that he’s any better with bird flu on the way. But no it’s never an either/or proposition. You are in fact allowed to leave that spot on the ballot blank.
Just understand that you have zero ground to stand on by not voting.
Yet another fallacy meant to coerce votes for bad candidates. I’m not politically disengaged. This is a political choice.
If you’re not participating, you’re not in the conversation. Simple as that.
As long as you’re voting on everything else on the ballot, fair enough. Also, I’m hoping you don’t live in a battleground state.
Oh yeah. It doesn’t work if you don’t vote at all. They have to know they left those votes behind.
And they’re right. And you’re wrong but don’t want to listen, so here we are.
If the choice is people dying or people dying then the system is no longer legitimate.
So do you plan on doing anything about it, or just going to pout about it and feel good about not voting when those people get bombed harder?
This is just virtue signaling. If you cared about the people you’d want to reduce the harm they’re facing, not try to moralize your bad choice on the Internet.
This is a two-way street though. You’d think the democratic establishment would also want to increase their electoral odds in order to reduce harm.
Like, the stakes are so high, and it’s so weird to see them betting the horse on Israel. It’s frankly irresponsible for Democrats to be playing politics like that at a time like this.
Ah yes all moral actions are just utilitarian so we should abandon morality.
So, nothing.
K
American voters have never had the power to decide US foreign policy.
That you think everyone here lacks intelligence enough to fall for that nonsense speaks volumes about your own.
No I think you’re just being willfully ignorant because it’s easier and those dead kids are over there.
Right… the dead kids. The perfect hot button rhetoric to swing around when you want to really drive the point home that “biDeN bAaAD!!”
You’re seemingly as textbook as one could be.
He could… Just not. That is an option.
Anything to get Trump elected, eh?
Oh look, another original take. You’re only the (checks notes) hundredth comment attempting to gaslight me into thinking I’m a trump supporter because I’m not blindly loyal to Biden. Not even the Democrats, Just Biden. And you guys accuse Trump supporters of being a cult.
Hmm… when 99 people in a room full of a hundred people suggest something-
Maybe it’s best to not believe that one dude that disagrees with them.
Spades are sometimes just spades. Regardless if they tell you they’re not.
No. The bandwagon is not a logical argument.
It’s not a bandwagon. It’s just simply a basis of observation.
That is literally the bandwagon argument.
Threat you’re unaware of your own hypocrisy here is absolutely hysterical!
Cause letting the guy who wants to send in the us military to “wipe em all out” win is waaaaay better for those people you pretend to care about.
Hilariously that would give them more access to aid than Israel is giving them. Trump wouldn’t be able to stop the US military from distributing aid as part of its normal operations mode. As usual he has no clue how the military works.
dafuq kinda nonsense is this? lesse, a president who supports wiping out Palestinians is better for Palestinians because then they get more aid?
???
Classic Lemmy. They’re quicker to blame you than they are Biden for bad policy.
A true optimist would suggest that Joe Biden could absolutely reverse course. It’s like they’ve all given up on that possibility.
Pretty much. I’m open about the fact that I would vote for him if he reversed course. Nope, still just shouting at me and calling me a trump supporter.
K
Mathematically, either Biden or Trump will win, with 100% certainty.
As lamentable as it is for Palestinians, you drawing the line in the sand over foreign policy in Palestine & Israel will not help Palestinians. I would even go as far to say that Biden’s policy on Israel is marginally better than what Trump’s would be. The GOP is actively hostile against Palestine. At least with Biden we are getting (gentle) push-back on Israel.
So, if it’s a given that either Biden or Trump will win, you have one of four options, depending on your political leaning:
I don’t see any other option, but if someone has one - one that helps Palestine - I’d be interested to hear option 5.
If the choice is genocide or genocide then it’s not a real choice and this election is not legitimate.
In spite of you saying it’s not a real choice, you seem to be choosing #3 or #4.
Bold choice. We’ll see how it goes.
No. That’s your categorization. Not mine.
It is my categorization. But it’s a logical framing.
I’d be interested to hear if there are any other logical possibilities outside the four I named.
You might be making an illogical choice, and that’s ok. It is you, and you can make your own choice.
The democratic party realizes it’s losing voters instead of gaining them and reverses course. And yes that requires being willing to carry out the threat of not voting for Biden in November.
You base all your facts on feels, dontcha?
I won’t be responding any more to you, since you are an untrustworthy interlocutor. And I mean that!
Lemmy.world, shocking
Oh don’t worry most of .world wishes I would just shut up and let them enjoy their sense of moral superiority over Trump’s supporters.
Projection at it’s finest.
My ratio on this subject disagrees with you.
And VOTE DOWN BALLOT. If Democrats voted down ballot as frequently as Republicans do, the Republicans would lose House and Senate by a wide margin.