Nah. There’s a million studies that look at isolated physical traits, but mostly have one of two common problems. 1) they are often written by people with an explicitly anti trans inclusion bias and 2) they look at physical traits in isolation without attempting to quantify if and how those traits apply to sports.
If trans women can out perform cis women, it only takes one to set a women’s world record, yet that just doesn’t happen. There are often articles claiming this has happened, but when you look closer, it turns out that they’re talking about age/regional/federation specific records that are mis presented as world records.
If trans women out perform cis women, we should expect to see them more likely to end with podium finishes than the cis women they’re competing with. It should be pretty trivial to gather the data and show that advantage. But it doesn’t happen, because the truth is, trans women are on average, more likely to under perform compared to cis women.
No study that looks at a trait in isolation and makes educated guesses about the effect of hormone replacement on that trait is ever going to tell you how real world sporting outcomes will be impacted.
The only thing that will tell you that is actual real world sporting results, and the limited results we have so far don’t show any hint of an advantage. If it is in there, it’s small enough that it’s not immediately obvious. We both know that if it was obvious, the media would be screaming it from the hills.
Some numbers. There are 50,000 athletes in the Olympics each year. From memory, there have been 4 or 5 Olympics in which trans people have been able to participate. So, that’s at least 200,000 athletes participating in that time. Now, trans people make up 1% of the population. Lets say that trans people are 10x less likely to get involved in sports though due to external factors. Using those numbers, 1 in 1000 of those 200,000 athletes should have been trans, which comes out 200. Lets say trans people are 100 times less likely to participate in sports. Even then, we should have seen 20 trans athletes. And those athletes should have got more gold medals than you would expect. Instead, we have had exactly 1 trans woman athlete in that time, and she came last in her event.
That’s what people are afraid of.
No amount of articles about testosterone and puberty change the reality that people are trying to exclude a vulnerable minority to solve a problem they can’t even show to exist in the first place.
Regarding the number part: what if there were athletes that did not come out yet?
I’m specifically talking about trans women on hormone replacement therapy here. There is no significant movement towards including trans women not on hormone replacement in women’s sport at elite levels.
Nah. There’s a million studies that look at isolated physical traits, but mostly have one of two common problems. 1) they are often written by people with an explicitly anti trans inclusion bias and 2) they look at physical traits in isolation without attempting to quantify if and how those traits apply to sports.
If trans women can out perform cis women, it only takes one to set a women’s world record, yet that just doesn’t happen. There are often articles claiming this has happened, but when you look closer, it turns out that they’re talking about age/regional/federation specific records that are mis presented as world records.
If trans women out perform cis women, we should expect to see them more likely to end with podium finishes than the cis women they’re competing with. It should be pretty trivial to gather the data and show that advantage. But it doesn’t happen, because the truth is, trans women are on average, more likely to under perform compared to cis women.
No study that looks at a trait in isolation and makes educated guesses about the effect of hormone replacement on that trait is ever going to tell you how real world sporting outcomes will be impacted.
The only thing that will tell you that is actual real world sporting results, and the limited results we have so far don’t show any hint of an advantage. If it is in there, it’s small enough that it’s not immediately obvious. We both know that if it was obvious, the media would be screaming it from the hills.
Some numbers. There are 50,000 athletes in the Olympics each year. From memory, there have been 4 or 5 Olympics in which trans people have been able to participate. So, that’s at least 200,000 athletes participating in that time. Now, trans people make up 1% of the population. Lets say that trans people are 10x less likely to get involved in sports though due to external factors. Using those numbers, 1 in 1000 of those 200,000 athletes should have been trans, which comes out 200. Lets say trans people are 100 times less likely to participate in sports. Even then, we should have seen 20 trans athletes. And those athletes should have got more gold medals than you would expect. Instead, we have had exactly 1 trans woman athlete in that time, and she came last in her event.
That’s what people are afraid of.
No amount of articles about testosterone and puberty change the reality that people are trying to exclude a vulnerable minority to solve a problem they can’t even show to exist in the first place.
This was extremely informative, thank you!
Regarding the number part: what if there were athletes that did not come out yet? (I don’t know how it works, totally ignorant on the matter)
Then for the rest I see what you mean. I guess my opinion as a science guy is to do more tests (like, let them openly compete, more data more sense)
I’m specifically talking about trans women on hormone replacement therapy here. There is no significant movement towards including trans women not on hormone replacement in women’s sport at elite levels.